Snow Probable Friday 1/19

Sunday Jan 14th

Colder, breezy, a bit of snow possible but not likely.

Today temps will drop as an artic cold front moves through the area. Wind likely to pick up again this afternoon for a few hours as the front moves through, and there is a slight chance of snow showers but not with any significant accumulation.

MLK day itself will be cold and dry. Overnight temps both tonight and tomorrow night could be in the teens.

Some snow likely on Tuesday, mostly during the day. One to two inches possible.

Chance of more snow on Friday.

Thanks, Max!

max_weisenfeld said:

Sunday Jan 14th

Colder, breezy, a bit of snow possible but not likely.

Today temps will drop as an artic cold front moves through the area. Wind likely to pick up again this afternoon for a few hours as the front moves through, and there is a slight chance of snow showers but not with any significant accumulation.

MLK day itself will be cold and dry. Overnight temps both tonight and tomorrow night could be in the teens.

Some snow likely on Tuesday, mostly during the day. One to two inches possible.

Chance of more snow on Friday.

Well we got some flurries for a few minutes mid-day. I'm really hoping for some actual accumulating snow ... but not too much! 

Monday Jan 15th 2024

Snow probable overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.

Although there are still some variations the models are coming into general agreement about a likely snow event. Cold air remains in place across the region, so as the light precipitation is likely to move in either this afternoon or this evening, it would be all snow. Flurries would give way to steady light snow overnight, with a possible accumulation of 1 - 3 inches by the time snow ends late morning Tuesday. There is some possibility that the last hour could be freezing rain as the temps get close to 32⁰, so the NWS has put up a Winter Weather Advisory. It is possible to probable that it will still be snowing during the morning commute on Tuesday.

Then real cold air is going to settle across the area for most of the rest of the week. The signal for another all-snow event on Friday is still muddled, so going to leave that one at a 50/50 possibility for now.

max_weisenfeld said:

Monday Jan 15th 2024

Snow probable overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.

Although there are still some variations the models are coming into general agreement about a likely snow event. Cold air remains in place across the region, so as the light precipitation is likely to move in either this afternoon or this evening, it would be all snow. Flurries would give way to steady light snow overnight, with a possible accumulation of 1 - 3 inches by the time snow ends late morning Tuesday. There is some possibility that the last hour could be freezing rain as the temps get close to 32⁰, so the NWS has put up a Winter Weather Advisory. It is possible to probable that it will still be snowing during the morning commute on Tuesday.

Then real cold air is going to settle across the area for most of the rest of the week. The signal for another all-snow event on Friday is still muddled, so going to leave that one at a 50/50 possibility for now.

Thanks, Max!

Monday Evening, Jan 15th

Light snow is falling.

It's actually been snowing for hours, but with the air so dry, the snow is only beginning to reach the ground now.Snow will continue all night, mostly light and powdery. It is unlikely that snow will accumulate at more than 1/2" per hour, and for most of the night it will be less than that. After daybreak Tuesday morning, as temperatures approach freezing, it is possible that a period of freezing rain will develop. If this happens (and it is only a 50/50 shot right now) it is most likely to occur mid to late morning, 10am to noonish. We will be very close to the rain/snow line, which I think will set up just east of us around I95/NJ Turnpike (this would be good for us, meaning we would stay all snow).

Now I am not in the business of forecasting the school district, so please don't ask me what they will do, I have no idea. I will say to pay attention if you are out and about tomorrow mid to late morning and watch for icy conditions, especially if temps get into the 30 to 34 degree range.

Total snow overnight and tomorrow morning, perhaps 1 - 3" of light and fluffy. If icing occurs, expect there to be only a thin film of ice.

Very light snow and possibly ice could continue into mid afternoon but this is less likely.

Another light snow event is forecast for Thurs - Friday.

They called a 2-hour delay. 

Tuesday January 16th 2024

Light snow showers continuing. Chance of sleet or freezing rain later this morning into the afternoon.

Forecast is on track. About an inch on the ground, maybe another ½ inch to 1 inch to come. As previously forecast, we will be very close to the rain/snow line as it runs roughly parallel to the coast later this morning and into the afternoon. A thin layer of ice may accumulate, especially on untreated surfaces. Tonight, surfaces may re-freeze. The NWS has left the Advisory in place through 7pm tonight.

Freezing temperatures likely to maintain throughout the rest of the week and also through the weekend. There is a 50/50 chance of a light accumulating snow event Friday into Saturday. If more than flurries, we might be looking at 1 - 3 inches.

They called a full snow day. 

How are the roads today?  I just cleared about 3 cm of wet snow from our walks and driveway and there’s a lovely mixture of rain and slush falling from the sky. 

Local roads seemed fine at noon but it has been raining ice steadily so I can't speak about road conditions now.   Sidewalks, shoveled or not, are an icy mess.  

I found the drive home from work tonight way more treacherous than my morning commute. Every surface out there is ice tonight. 

Wed Jan 17

Clear and cold. May be icy patches, especially on untreated surfaces.

Friday could see 1 - 2" of additional snow during the day.

max_weisenfeld said:

Wed Jan 17

Clear and cold. May be icy patches, especially on untreated surfaces.

Friday could see 1 - 2" of additional snow during the day.

Any idea when the snow is going to start? Thursday evening? 

Jaytee said:

max_weisenfeld said:

Wed Jan 17

Clear and cold. May be icy patches, especially on untreated surfaces.

Friday could see 1 - 2" of additional snow during the day.

Any idea when the snow is going to start? Thursday evening? 

Looking like a daytime event -- Friday during the day

Thursday January 18th 2024

Light snow Friday

Snow is likely to develop Friday morning between 6 - 10am, and continue as all snow much of the day. Snow should remain light but fairly steady until ending late afternoon. With temperatures in the mid to high 20s no changeover, rain, or ice is expected to fall.

Total snow should be in the 2 - 4" range.

Although the weather clears for the weekend, I don't expect temperatures to get above freezing until Monday, so be on the lookout for icy conditions.

Next precipitation might be Tuesday night, with rain possible. Too early to be more specific.

Thanks, Max! 

Friday Jan 19th

Snow today is likely

Light snow will overspread the area this morning. Although there is local snow on the radar right now, it will take a couple of hours for the dry air to saturate and the snow will probably not hit the ground until mid-morning. From then, snow likely, light, with periods of morpderate snow possible. The NWS is still holding at 2 - 4" but there is downside trending on the models and this system may underperform. Precipitation ends as all snow this evening, there may be some lingering impacts to the evening commute.

Next precipitation now looking more like Tuesday night into Wednesday, still strongly indicating an all rain event but the models are still messy as to timing. This storm does not appear at this time to have a significant risk of flooding.

Thanks, Max!

My colleague in the East Brunswick area said she has about 2" on the ground, and it's like blizzard conditions. Meanwhile, we just have little flakes here, and snow is not sticking yet, so my sidewalk is still clear. 

sprout said:

My colleague in the East Brunswick area said she has about 2" on the ground, and it's like blizzard conditions. Meanwhile, while we just have little flakes here, and snow is not sticking yet, so my sidewalk is still clear. 

There's a rather sharp drop off in forecast snowfall north of I78, and there are Wiinter Storm Warnings from Philly south

I’m in Somerville right now. Nothing to write home about. 

mrincredible said:

I’m in Somerville right now. Nothing to write home about. 

Dunno. They got a pretty good Italian restaurant on the main drag.

A bust.  I see a big band of snow on the radar south of us but it's heading east/southeast.