Dorian

ril

Greetings from South Florida, where we're preparing for Dorian. Publix is already out of water, Home Depot is a zoo, and there are lines at the gas stations. No evacuation orders yet, even for those right on the coast.

The models are still unclear, some show a direct hit on the area between West Palm and Miami (exactly where we are); others show it moving farther north...

I'm no weather expert, if one of the local weather mavens could chime in with thoughts on Dorian's track, I'd be grateful (as would many MapSo folk with homes, families and friends in SoFla).


WxNut2.0

Dorian is an interesting beast so far. Models seemingly honed in on a landfall around West Palm beach yesterday, but have waffled a bit today. As of this morning's runs, they show a sort of bifurcation between a more northerly (almost totally recurved) track and a more intense, southerly landfall. The more northerly solutions would be a little better, as they'd likely entail a slightly weaker storm. The NHC seems to be somewhere in the middle regarding track, favoring a landfall around the space coast as a major, category 4 hurricane. Given an ambient environment that is very favorable for intensification, I tend to agree with their assessment at the moment. Subject to change, but I'd bet on a landfall around the space coast as a strong hurricane. While a recurve back out to sea is not impossible, I don't think its particularly likely. Will have to see what this evening's runs do, but everywhere from Miami to Jacksonville needs to be in high alert. Take whatever local officials advise seriously!


Klinker

ril said:

Greetings from South Florida, where we're preparing for Dorian. Publix is already out of water, Home Depot is a zoo, and there are lines at the gas stations. No evacuation orders yet, even for those right on the coast

I have always been puzzled by this.  Do people just ditch their plywood once the storm has passed.  If I lived in South Florida I would just keep a supply of plywood in the shed or something.


Klinker

WxNut2.0 said:

Dorian is an interesting beast so far. Models seemingly honed in on a landfall around West Palm beach yesterday, but have waffled a bit today. 

If it has to hit somewhere, can we pray that the eye passes directly over Mordor Lago? I'd be willing to bet that Tang Trash is behind on his insurance payments.


Klinker

Obviously, I would prefer it pass harmlessly out to sea but.....


ril

@Klinker, we do keep the panels (ours are plexiglas) in the garage off season, but somehow we always need more wingnuts, batteries, etc. One of my neighbors actually had her panels stolen last year-- they were left outside overnight waiting to be put up, and they were gone in the morning. Florida, sigh.

And as much as I too would love to see Mordor wiped out, it's a little too close for comfort!

@WxNut2.0, thanks for the info. I'd certainly like to see it take the northerly track! People do seem to be taking this one seriously, especially after this morning's upgrade to Cat 4. 


WxNut2.0

Klinker said:

WxNut2.0 said:

Dorian is an interesting beast so far. Models seemingly honed in on a landfall around West Palm beach yesterday, but have waffled a bit today. 

If it has to hit somewhere, can we pray that the eye passes directly over Mordor Lago? I'd be willing to bet that Tang Trash is behind on his insurance payments.

 The European model hit Mar-a-lago dead on as of yesterday. 


Klinker

ril said:

 One of my neighbors actually had her panels stolen last year-- they were left outside overnight waiting to be put up, and they were gone in the morning. Florida, sigh.

Talk about your bad karma!

ril said:

And as much as I too would love to see Mordor wiped out, it's a little too close for comfort!

You remind me that there are a lot of decent people living in that shadow.  I will revise my prayers (says the confirmed agnostic).  I hope you guys dodge the bullet.


nan

My late 80's mother lives to the west of Fort Lauderdale and It has been difficult to get her to prepare for the storm.  She does not take them seriously, although a bit better since the last few were huge and knocked out her power. She's famous for saying "oh, I picked up a few cold cuts.  I'm fine."  My sister offered to pay for her to take a flight to my house to wait it out, but so far she does not want to do that.   During the last big storm, I sent her a huge package from whatever Amazon had left, and it did not get there until way after the storm.  So, we will see what happens.  She lives in a condo, so she has people around her. She probably went to the library and got a big pile a book to read.  I can count on her to do that at least.  Also, she probably still has the tuna cans I sent.


campbell29

I lived in Miami during Andrew.  All the new construction is equipped with much better hurricane protection.  Nonetheless, anyone with older construction who thinks sheltering in place with plywood is adequate is in a world of danger.  I went to relatives on the west coast with my car and was fine.  However, after the hurricane passed, it was impossible to return for over 2 weeks because there was no infrastructure, utilities.  It took over 10 years to repair the damage.  As much as I would love to see Maralago wiped off the face of the earth, it’s probably the only way FEMA, with its reallocation of resources to ICE, will be fully funded to assist.  PB, Dade and Broward are all very democratic counties.


WxNut2.0

Well Florida the trend is your friend! As of now this thing is starting to trend towards Dorian either brushing up against the coast or heading back out to see altogether. Four days is a long time in model land, and it could very well take a sharp turn back towards land, but NHC (while prudently still showing a landfalling hurricane) is beginning to hedge towards a recurvature. Those anywhere along the Florida coast should remain hyper vigilant though.


ril

Oh, I sure hope this trend continues. Thanks for the update!

We're pretty much stocked and ready to hunker down as needed, but there are a LOT of people who are only just starting to think about maybe doing something...



WxNut2.0

National Hurricane center is now predicting Florida will be spared a landfall, with the storm coming closest to shore around Charleston, SC. Still plenty of time for this to reverse course though!


BG9

WxNut2.0 said:

Four days is a long time in model land, and it could very well take a sharp turn back towards land, but NHC (while prudently still showing a landfalling hurricane) is beginning to hedge towards a recurvature. Those anywhere along the Florida coast should remain hyper vigilant though.

Last week something did bother me about the mapped model. I believe it was Tuesday when the model showed it passing Puerto Rico as a hurricane and then quickly denigrating to a depression (D) passing over Hispaniola and curving north to southern Fl.

What bothered me then was that model showed the modeled depression moving over large parts of very warm water. I found it denigrating to and remaining a depression over very warm water hard to believe.

Two days later the models changed to indicate not depression, but instead a major hurricane (M) with a slight shift north. That I found to be more realistic.

My question is, considering the "unusual" water temperatures, are the models still capable? Do they need to redo them considering the additional energy in water that was not present years ago? If I remember correctly, last year we also had a major hurricane that was underestimated by quickly jumping to 4 from 1 or 2 in a very short time.


WxNut2.0

BG9 said:

WxNut2.0 said:

Four days is a long time in model land, and it could very well take a sharp turn back towards land, but NHC (while prudently still showing a landfalling hurricane) is beginning to hedge towards a recurvature. Those anywhere along the Florida coast should remain hyper vigilant though.

Last week something did bother me about the mapped model. I believe it was Tuesday when the model showed it passing Puerto Rico as a hurricane and then quickly denigrating to a depression (D) passing over Hispaniola and curving north to southern Fl.

What bothered me then was that model showed the modeled depression moving over large parts of very warm water. I found it denigrating to and remaining a depression over very warm water hard to believe.

Two days later the models changed to indicate not depression, but instead a major hurricane (M) with a slight shift north. That I found to be more realistic.

My question is, considering the "unusual" water temperatures, are the models still capable? Do they need to redo them considering the additional energy in water that was not present years ago? If I remember correctly, last year we also had a major hurricane that was underestimated by quickly jumping to 4 from 1 or 2 in a very short time.

 Theres a lot more that goes into a tropical cyclone's (TC) development and maintenance than just warm water. Areas of strong wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height) will act to shred the storm apart. The models consistently showed this. Now that said, the models are plenty capable, but hurricane intensity forecasts are very difficult to perfect due to the numerical chaos that is intrinsic to atmospheric convection. Being that TC's are governed by convection, they are prone to numerical chaos in the models, making their intensity difficult to predict. Getting directly to what you postulated though, the modeled storm was impacted by wind shear and land interaction near Hispaniola, which stunted its development. There was nothing unphysical about it, and these types of other factors always need to be considered. 


WxNut2.0

And to add: we are constantly updating the models we use. They rarely if ever get "re-done", although every few years we roll a new one out to replace an old one. This is the case with the current GFS (American model), which was just fundamentally updated and can largely be considered a new model. 


BG9

WxNut2.0 said:

And to add: we are constantly updating the models we use. They rarely if ever get "re-done", although every few years we roll a new one out to replace an old one. This is the case with the current GFS (American model), which was just fundamentally updated and can largely be considered a new model. 

Thanks for the good explanations. I didn't know they are constantly updated, thinking new ones would be rolled out every so many years. Good to know.

I know you graduated. I hope your enjoying your career in this most interesting and lively field. grin


WxNut2.0

BG9 said:

WxNut2.0 said:

And to add: we are constantly updating the models we use. They rarely if ever get "re-done", although every few years we roll a new one out to replace an old one. This is the case with the current GFS (American model), which was just fundamentally updated and can largely be considered a new model. 

Thanks for the good explanations. I didn't know they are constantly updated, thinking new ones would be rolled out every so many years. Good to know.

I know you graduated. I hope your enjoying your career in this most interesting and lively field.
grin

 Thank you! Never a dull moment. 


ril

Thanks for your help, @WxNut!  The 11am report looks even more optimistic for FL (my sympathies to those in Dorian's new path). Still ready for some stormy weather here, but way less stressed!



WxNut2.0

ril said:

Thanks for your help, @WxNut!  The 11am report looks even more optimistic for FL (my sympathies to those in Dorian's new path). Still ready for some stormy weather here, but way less stressed!


 Don't let your guard down just yet. Still a decent chance this thing shifts back west.


Dennis_Seelbach

WxNut2.0 said:

ril said:

Thanks for your help, @WxNut!  The 11am report looks even more optimistic for FL (my sympathies to those in Dorian's new path). Still ready for some stormy weather here, but way less stressed!


 Don't let your guard down just yet. Still a decent chance this thing shifts back west.

 And those of us in coastal South Carolina are left to shake our heads and ponder how in the heck this is gonna miss us.


Klinker

If it skirts the coast, is there any chance of it hitting us in NJ?


WxNut2.0

Dennis_Seelbach said:

WxNut2.0 said:

ril said:

Thanks for your help, @WxNut!  The 11am report looks even more optimistic for FL (my sympathies to those in Dorian's new path). Still ready for some stormy weather here, but way less stressed!


 Don't let your guard down just yet. Still a decent chance this thing shifts back west.

 And those of us in coastal South Carolina are left to shake our heads and ponder how in the heck this is gonna miss us.

It may not miss you.

Klinker said:

If it skirts the coast, is there any chance of it hitting us in NJ?

 Maybe like a 2% chance.


Klinker

WxNut2.0 said:

Klinker said:

If it skirts the coast, is there any chance of it hitting us in NJ?

 Maybe like a 2% chance.

 Thanks.  That would suck.


DottyParker

The storm wizards here already know the drill, but I came upon an animated illustration of the actual Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Up to now I hadn't realized it had a name when I heard meteorologists refer to the "category" of incoming storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php


WxNut2.0

DottyParker said:

The storm wizards here already know the drill, but I came upon an animated illustration of the actual Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Up to now I hadn't realized it had a name when I heard meteorologists refer to the "category" of incoming storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

 Cool fact about the scale: it was named for Herbert Saffir and Bob Simpson, that later of whom’s wife was the first woman in the United States to get a PhD in meteorology. Although he had a wind scale named for him, she’s one of the most influential and prominent meteorological researchers of all time. A legend in our field. 


WxNut2.0

Klinker said:

WxNut2.0 said:

Klinker said:

If it skirts the coast, is there any chance of it hitting us in NJ?

 Maybe like a 2% chance.

 Thanks.  That would suck.

 Would be significantly weaker than it is now. If it got to Jersey it would lose the influence of the warm Gulf Stream and likely encounter quite a bit of shear. 


ril

Clearly Dorian heeded Publix's advice


nan

Love those cakes!


WxNut2.0

Not sure what NHC will do officially at  the next advisory, but this is likely a strong category 5 hurricane now. Recent aircraft observations have shown 175mph wind. 



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