Dorian

While Dorian is unlikely to make landfall on New Jersey, we could see some heavy rain Friday night. Surf and rip tides will be affecting local beaches by today.

Dorian is currently threatening the entire southeastern US coast, and could make landfall anywhere from Jacksonville Fl to Kitty Hawk NC. It is also forecast to make landfall on Nova Scotia, Canada, and may still be a hurricane at that time.

While the models are now in good agreement on track and intensity, because the projected track lies so close to and parallel to shore, slight deviations in the track could mean significant changes to the forecast.


W/PO reports it is regaining strength.


Formerlyjerseyjack said:

W/PO reports it is regaining strength.

 Temporarily. It got back to Cat 3 yesterday but that will begin to decrease again as it interacts with land and moves north. In addition to the normal threats associated with a hurricane, this one seems to be producing a substantial amount of tornadoes along the Carolina coast. This isn't out of the ordinary, but several have been rather strong which is fairly unique for these types of events.


Its back at Cat 2 now.


And no sooner do I say it does the NHC add 5 mph to go back to a cat 3. Shows you how silly the current scale is.


For those keeping score at home, it looks like the new GFS has had a slight edge in track accuracy on Dorian, although for a while the UKie was pretty good, too.


max_weisenfeld said:

For those keeping score at home, it looks like the new GFS has had a slight edge in track accuracy on Dorian, although for a while the UKie was pretty good, too.

 ECMWF has largely beaten the GFS (AVNO). UKX has done ok. 


WxNut2.0 said:

max_weisenfeld said:

For those keeping score at home, it looks like the new GFS has had a slight edge in track accuracy on Dorian, although for a while the UKie was pretty good, too.

 ECMWF has largely beaten the GFS (AVNO). UKX has done ok. 

 That was the exact chart I was looking at and I would swear that was not what it looked like 24 hours ago, which I agknowedge is not possible.


apropos of nothing, but the current track of Dorian as it heads north is the exact path of a New England cruise I'm taking next week.

When was the last time a hurricane has made it that far north?

I guess I lucked out.


This is unreal.

Trump asserted that Alabama will be hit by Dorian, much harder than anticipated. Worried residents then phoned the Birmingham NWS office trying to get more detail. Whereupon the weather office sent out a tweet stating Alabama would not be affected.

Trump misleads Alabama, residents are worried and the NWS corrects by telling them not to worry.

The result? A directive is issued telling the NWS not to contradict Trump.

What in the future?  Trump incorrectly telling us a hurricane will hit us here with the NWS prevented from denying it? Will NWS hurricane center charts be suppressed if they contradict Trump?

Welcome to 1984.

NOAA staff warned in Sept. 1 directive against contradicting Trump


BG9 said:

This is unreal.

Trump asserted that Alabama will be hit by Dorian, much harder than anticipated. Worried residents then phoned the Birmingham NWS office trying to get more detail. Whereupon the weather office sent out a tweet stating Alabama would not be affected.

Trump misleads Alabama, residents are worried and the NWS corrects by telling them not to worry.

The result? A directive is issued telling the NWS not to contradict Trump.

What in the future?  Trump incorrectly telling us a hurricane will hit us here with the NWS prevented from denying it? Will NWS hurricane center charts be suppressed if they contradict Trump?

Welcome to 1984.

NOAA staff warned in Sept. 1 directive against contradicting Trump

 The shockwaves this has sent through the meteorological community are unlike any most have seen. This is such a punch in the gut. NWS sent out its own internal memo yesterday praising the NWS Birmingham and all who worked this storm.


WxNut2.0 said:

 The shockwaves this has sent through the meteorological community are unlike any most have seen. This is such a punch in the gut. NWS sent out its own internal memo yesterday praising the NWS Birmingham and all who worked this storm.

We'll see what happens.

Trump and his executive enablers are a nasty, vindictive bunch. They don't forget. I will not surprised at future NWS cuts or NWS management changes.


Well, we’ve just seen how well that plays out: drastic cuts to weather services and emergency services coordination, and especially for major disaster coordination ‘after all these days so much can be done remotely, and automatically’ - half our east coast is on fire, since Friday. No water to put them out (major drought, so severe they have to relocate major native fish supplies in critical waterways that are too low). Fire season has just begun. 

Sydney had unexpectedly wild winds last weekend, almost tornado-like. And I think it’s still snowing around Tasmania. 

They’re not quite sure what to expect - certainly the expanse of fires changes the way the weather fronts behave along the Great Divide and along the coast. 

Some things are above politics cheese


BG9 said:

This is unreal.

Trump asserted that Alabama will be hit by Dorian, much harder than anticipated. Worried residents then phoned the Birmingham NWS office trying to get more detail. Whereupon the weather office sent out a tweet stating Alabama would not be affected.

Trump misleads Alabama, residents are worried and the NWS corrects by telling them not to worry.

The result? A directive is issued telling the NWS not to contradict Trump.

What in the future?  Trump incorrectly telling us a hurricane will hit us here with the NWS prevented from denying it? Will NWS hurricane center charts be suppressed if they contradict Trump?

Welcome to 1984.

NOAA staff warned in Sept. 1 directive against contradicting Trump

And yet these morons will vote for Trump again in 2020.


It gets worse:

WASHINGTON — The Secretary of Commerce threatened to fire top employees at the federal scientific agency responsible for weather forecasts last Friday after the agency’s Birmingham office contradicted President Trump’s claim that Hurricane Dorian might hit Alabama, according to three people familiar with the discussion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/climate/hurricane-dorian-trump-tweet.html


Now he's claiming its raining when it's not, at that rally, daring the various media representatives to challenge him. And apparently the Office of the Inspector General is investigating the goings-on last week re 'Sharpiegate'. 

Really? This is what modern democracy has come to?? Sigh. 


BG9 said:

It gets worse:

WASHINGTON — The Secretary of Commerce threatened to fire top employees at the federal scientific agency responsible for weather forecasts last Friday after the agency’s Birmingham office contradicted President Trump’s claim that Hurricane Dorian might hit Alabama, according to three people familiar with the discussion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/climate/hurricane-dorian-trump-tweet.html

 I used one of my monthly free articles for the NYT to read this one. It's stunning what's going on.

And holy cow did Mr Burns crawl out of "The Simpsons" like the creepy girl from "The Ring" and come to life?


Rachel Maddow has just given a history lesson of why NOAA is part of the Commerce Dept. rather than the Interior Dept. It was created by Nixon whose Interior Secretary had criticized him over Vietnam.



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