Hot Stove League 2023 Version

Soul_29 said:

My recollection is that Nimmo's high school did not have a baseball team. He strictly played travel (American Legion) ball. I mention that because that might be why his development took a little longer and maybe why he's not familiar with some of the basics. Just a thought. 

that is part of why I think he will steal some bases next year. 


ml1 said:

Soul_29 said:

My recollection is that Nimmo's high school did not have a baseball team. He strictly played travel (American Legion) ball. I mention that because that might be why his development took a little longer and maybe why he's not familiar with some of the basics. Just a thought. 

that is part of why I think he will steal some bases next year. 

4.

He will steal four bases next season.


Soul_29 said:

4.

He will steal four bases next season.

he will be stealing them for the NY Mets grin


Wish there

ml1 said:

he will be stealing them for the NY Mets
grin

if there was a LOVE button I’d use it.

Liking Robertson too! I was more than shocked the Mets didn’t get him mid-season given what Philly gave up.


That is great about Nimmo.  A very fair price, and yet he becomes a very wealthy man.


Nimmo was a necessary signing and he had a great year to be on the market.  I am a bit shocked at the AAV of $20.25MM per year as well as the 8 year term, but that is where the market is at.  Full no-trade clause, and I did not see mention of options, so he is a Met for the rest of his career.  Reports are that he had serious interest from a number of well-heeled teams, so the Mets did what they had to do to sign the second best center fielder on the market this year.

The Robertson signing is a really great addition if he pitches like he has the last bunch of years--and there is no reason to expect any different from him.  Having lost so many relievers to free agency, this was also a very necessary signing.

Quintana at two years and $24MM is a relatively affordable deal for a solid middle of the rotation starter who should log about 150-175 innings.  He was a better pitcher than his record showed last year--I imagine pitching for Pittsburgh is about as low as it can get.  And he is younger than both Scherzer and Verlander!  Well, most pitchers are, and I think Peterson is the only Mets starter under 30 right now.  Yikes!

I expect the Mets to go in on another free agent starter, perhaps Kodai Senga who was posted by his Japanese League team, or even Chris Bassitt.  

The Mets are so far over the CBT cap that it is clear that they want to win now.  Still going to be a hard slog given all the stars the Phillies now have and all the young guns the Braves have.  Even with these signings you have to place them at third in the division before the first pitch is thrown--after that, well, anything can happen.


I agree about needing another pitcher, but I also want a real bat this year at DH somehow.  I'd love for Baty to come on strong because either he or Escobar we would be okay, but if Ruf is still on the roster we won't catch Philadelphia or Atlanta.


DanDietrich said:

I agree about needing another pitcher, but I also want a real bat this year at DH somehow.  I'd love for Baty to come on strong because either he or Escobar we would be okay, but if Ruf is still on the roster we won't catch Philadelphia or Atlanta.

Cutting Ruf means eating $3 million for one year.  In the face of a $300MM payroll that is nothing.


Cut Ruf AND McCann because, well, WHO CARES?!


Ruf has to go because it's a roster spot that could be used by a major league player.  McCann is good insurance right now because Alvarez needs at least a spring and some to show that he can actually hit.  He did not hit when he came up, and both Nido and McCann are better defensively if the position isn't going to hit.


Mets sign Kodai Senga to a 5 year deal with a 2 year out clause.  Supposedly a flame thrower.  We shall see.

The Mets starting rotations seems filled for now.  If Scherzer and Verlander can stay healthy it is a pretty good starting five.

The Mets thread has a good discussion of the salary cap implications of the Mets offseason splurge.


BarneyGumble said:

Purportedly throws triple digits and barely cracked 1 K per inning in Japan? Can you say Hideki Irabu?

I get that NPB isn’t MLB,* but Senga’s K/9 in his Japanese career was 10.4, which only someone who doesn’t grasp the significance of each tenth of a point in that stat would call “barely.”

* One difference, not incidentally, is NPB’s emphasis on making contact when swinging a bat.


DaveSchmidt said:

I get that NPB isn’t MLB,* but Senga’s K/9 in his Japanese career was 10.4, which only someone who doesn’t grasp the significance of each tenth of a point in that stat would call “barely.”

* One difference, not incidentally, is NPB’s emphasis on making contact when swinging a bat.

Senga's out pitch is the "ghost fork" not a triple digit fastball. 


The Mets owe $1 billion in luxury tax.  I'm joking, but they will owe tens of millions in luxury tax.

yahooyahoo said:

The Mets owe $1 billion in luxury tax.  I'm joking, but they will owe tens of millions in luxury tax.

From the Mets Only thread:

"To give some perspective, the Mets' cap payroll of $349,500,000 is $56,500,000 above the fourth and highest cap level in the CBT of $293,000,000.

As a second year offender of being over the lowest level of the cap, the Mets will pay 90 cents on every dollar over the base cap of $233,000,000. Meaning a tax of $104,850,000. This tax is higher than the lowest 11 MLB payrolls--Washington, Arizona, Minnesota, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Oakland.

Even with some monster contracts the last few years the Yankees are at $253,000,000; the Padres $235,000,000, and the Phillies $230,000,000.

Clearly spending a lot of money is no guarantee of success. The Angels are at $198,000,000, for example. And careful spending, locking in young stars early, and exceptional talent scouting to replace FAs who walk, can be effective while staying in the middle of the pack--Houston is at $183,000,000.

I also have no idea what the answer is, but it must be depressing to be an Oakland or Pittsburgh fan and watch all your stars get traded away before they hit arbitration, let alone free agency."

As others noted in that thread, part of the luxury tax goes to fund the Owner's obligations for the players' pension and welfare funds ($13MM).  After that, it is split 50/50 between the funds and clubs who are below the threshold.  While the concept is that smaller market teams can use the funds to go after big-name free agents, the reality is that these clubs are pocketing the cash and letting a few teams spend the big bucks.

I do not believe that any of the wealthy conglomerates that own any MLB clubs are losing money--and almost no club is wholly owned by one owner/family; all lay off some of their risk by bringing in minority partners.  These are successful business people who may have money to burn but who do not like to lose money, I would imagine.  Even the Mets at $350MM are probably damned close to breaking even when you consider television, radio, advertising, food, parking, etc.


I'm not sure if putting in a minimum salary cap would help matters, but something has to be done. And I think the Mets aren't going to continue with this strategy. The Wilpons left the minors in shambles so if they want to compete they have to sign free agents until they have a solid farm system. I don't know what the Nats payroll is, but they spent a lot on Strasburg and Corbin instead of Scherzer, Soto or Turner. That's going to set them back a while. 


jfinnegan said:

 I don't know what the Nats payroll is, but they spent a lot on Strasburg and Corbin instead of Scherzer, Soto or Turner. That's going to set them back a while. 

The Nats are 20th at $118,000,000 against the cap in 2023.  For 2024 they are down to $77,000,000 committed.  For comparison, the Mets in 2024 will be at $226,000,000 committed.

With regards to rebuilding the minors, I believe the CBT also gives more favorable draft picks to teams who are below the threshold and more international bonus pool money.  If this is correct, the Mets are also hurting their minor league stock-up a bit.  Finally, imagine what that $104,850,000 tax penalty would do if directed to building a dynamite minor league program and scouting program.  Definitely a significant trade off for wanting to win this year.  Not saying Cohen is wrong to do it, just that there are of course consequences.


Relegation would be wonderful. There should be some penalty for not even trying to field a competitive team. If you have less than 70 wins for 3 years in a row there should be some sort of consequence. 


jfinnegan said:

Relegation would be wonderful. There should be some penalty for not even trying to field a competitive team. If you have less than 70 wins for 3 years in a row there should be some sort of consequence.

For the 2011-13 Astros, the consquences were four AL pennants and two World Series titles.


DaveSchmidt said:

For the 2011-13 Astros, the consquences were two World Series titles.


jfinnegan said:

Believe me, I wish.


Odd day.  Bassett to Toronto for three years at 63 million, and a good old fashioned 9 player trade between Oakland, Atlanta, and Milwaukee.


Atlanta just got a scary good catcher.  Not good for the Mets to see.

And while I am happy for Bassitt to get his payday, I sure hate to see him go.


mfpark said:

Atlanta just got a scary good catcher.  Not good for the Mets to see.

Yeah, the NL East is going to be hell. Or heaven, depending.


It's not like Atlanta was terribly deficient at catcher last year (like the Mets). It's an improvement for sure. But is it a huge improvement? I don't know. 


ml1 said:

It's not like Atlanta was terribly deficient at catcher last year (like the Mets). It's an improvement for sure. But is it a huge improvement? I don't know.

It’s an improvement, for sure, of a team that won 101 games. How huge does it have to be?


DaveSchmidt said:

It’s an improvement, for sure, of a team that won 101 games. How huge does it have to be?

I don't know. But it shouldn't be enough to get a Mets or Phillies fan riled up IMHO. Especially if Atlanta doesn't resign Swanson. 


ml1 said:

I don't know. But it shouldn't be enough to get a Mets or Phillies fan riled up IMHO. Especially if Atlanta doesn't resign Swanson.

You can speak for a Mets fan. Speaking for a Phillies fan, I was already impressed by how stacked the top of the division was looking.


DaveSchmidt said:

ml1 said:

I don't know. But it shouldn't be enough to get a Mets or Phillies fan riled up IMHO. Especially if Atlanta doesn't resign Swanson.

You can speak for a Mets fan. Speaking for a Phillies fan, I was already impressed by how stacked the top of the division was looking.

I was already impressed too. Which is kind of my point.


ml1 said:

I was already impressed too. Which is kind of my point.

And impressive just got even better, of the for-sure variety. Which was mine.


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