Hot Stove League 2023 Version

How did Milwaukee pull that off?


DaveSchmidt said:

ml1 said:

I was already impressed too. Which is kind of my point.

And impressive just got even better, of the for-sure variety. Which was mine.

I guess we'll just have to agree to agree on this one.


Yankees are making an offer to Rodon.

Interesting.

Will they go the 6 or 7 years guaranteed he is reportedly seeking?  Even though the trend is to stretch contracts out to lower the AAV per year, the Yankees have also said they were not interested in another long-term pitching contract.  Then, again, what they say and what they do are often quite different.  

Rodon is 30 years old, so compared to the Cole/Scherzer/Verlander/deGrom deals he is relatively younger.  OTOH, he so far ain't no Cole/Scherzer/Verlander/deGrom, although he has absolutely turned it around the last two years and lefties seem to often take a number of years to get their control in place.  He has had TJ and shoulder surgery, but last year he pitched 178 innings, his career high.


mfpark said:

Will they go the 6 or 7 years guaranteed he is reportedly seeking?

Posting this here just as a reminder to compare Spotrac’s calculated market value with the eventual contract: Spotrac calculates Rodon’s market value at six years, $195 million.


DaveSchmidt said:

mfpark said:

Will they go the 6 or 7 years guaranteed he is reportedly seeking?

Posting this here just as a reminder to compare Spotrac’s calculated market value with the eventual contract: Spotrac calculates Rodon’s market value at six years, $195 million.

MLB Trade Rumors had him at 5 years $140MM when the off-season started--before the other signings moved the market way north.  He is seeking 7 years at $200MM--AAV of $28.57MM.  That is quite a rarified club if he gains entry.  Will the Yankees do it based on just two solid years, neither of which hit 200 innings pitched?????

When you look at pitchers who either got $200MM+ or 7 years (or both), it is hit or miss.  Cole, Scherzer, Kershaw, Sabathia all did pretty well after signing.  But Greinke, Brown, Zito, Hampton, Price, and Strasburg should all give teams pause--a combination of injuries and age showed up after signings.  Most were older than Rodon is when they signed, which is something.


mfpark said:

MLB Trade Rumors had him at 5 years $140MM when the off-season started--before the other signings moved the market way north.

I can’t confirm when Spotrac came up with its estimate, but, interestingly, none of the pitchers it lists as the comparables it used in its calculation (Cole, Strasburg, Musgrove, Ryu) were part of the current wave of signings.


I think we have seen enough proof that long term contracts for starters are a mistake.  Better to pay more annually and keep the term short.


Thirteen year deal for a 28 year-old SS. Now that's a pretty crazy deal, especially at a position that was not currently a weakness for the Giants.  Good for Correa though, so congrats to him.


I like these long deals. The prospect of watching Harper and Turner display their talents for my favorite team across the arc of their careers, even into and through the inevitable twilight, excites me. Championships are too rare and capricious to rely on as the fuel for fandom, so give me players I can grow attached to over the long haul.


ml1 said:

Thirteen year deal for a 28 year-old SS. Now that's a pretty crazy deal, especially at a position that was not currently a weakness for the Giants.  Good for Correa though, so congrats to him.

Some deals are made simply to get the guy on board, then figure out the where to play everyone later.  Same as the Padres.  He was hands down the best free agent left on the board, and after losing out on Judge it was pretty clear that the Giants would be looking to spend big on the best they could land.

Correa is a solid hitter, great plate coverage and lots of hard contact when he hits the ball.  Great arm, good hands, decent range for now.  At his size he will likely wind up at third or first in a few years when his age slows him down a quarter step.  

Crawford will be moved to third base, and he only has one year left on his contract in any event.

The Dodgers said they were not interested in Correa, and I believe them.  My guess is they make a run at Swanson but ultimately do not go high enough and instead look in-house this year.  Interestingly, at the last minute the Mets were rumored to be checking into Correa, but that may have been more head games than anything else.  Maybe they even were trying to drive his price up to make it harder for the Giants to go after Rodon?  Stranger things have happened, and clearly the Mets do not care about luxury taxes


DaveSchmidt said:

I like these long deals. The prospect of watching Harper and Turner display their talents for my favorite team across the arc of their careers, even into and through the inevitable twilight, excites me. Championships are too rare and capricious to rely on as the fuel for fandom, so give me players I can grow attached to over the long haul.

I agree with this. I'm glad Lindor and Nimmo are going to be Mets for a long time. But there is a point where the length of a contract gets outlandish (e.g., Robinson Cano).


mfpark said:

Some deals are made simply to get the guy on board, then figure out the where to play everyone later.  Same as the Padres.  He was hands down the best free agent left on the board, and after losing out on Judge it was pretty clear that the Giants would be looking to spend big on the best they could land.

Correa is a solid hitter, great plate coverage and lots of hard contact when he hits the ball.  Great arm, good hands, decent range for now.  At his size he will likely wind up at third or first in a few years when his age slows him down a quarter step.  

Crawford will be moved to third base, and he only has one year left on his contract in any event.

The Dodgers said they were not interested in Correa, and I believe them.  My guess is they make a run at Swanson but ultimately do not go high enough and instead look in-house this year.  Interestingly, at the last minute the Mets were rumored to be checking into Correa, but that may have been more head games than anything else.  Maybe they even were trying to drive his price up to make it harder for the Giants to go after Rodon?  Stranger things have happened, and clearly the Mets do not care about luxury taxes

apparently the Mets were serious enough to ask Lindor about playing 3B. It would have been quite an IF with Alonso, McNeil, Correa and Lindor. But regarding budget and longer term planning, the Mets might be better off waiting for Ronny Mauricio to make it to the bigs in '24.


I looked at the free agents for next year. They could see if Baty is up for taking over 3rd base and if he isn't they might offer Devers a deal. That's if they have any money left after signing Ohtani for half a billion. 


Syndagaard to the Dodgers for one year, but I can't find the numbers.


DanDietrich said:

Syndagaard to the Dodgers for one year, but I can't find the numbers.

One year, $13 million, plus $1.5 million in incentive bonuses, according to AP.


Not a bad deal for either side.  


DanDietrich said:

Not a bad deal for either side. 

second year back after TJ is often the real bounceback year for some guys. So it may be a very good deal indeed for the Dodgers for 2023, and for Syndergaard in the years after.


Who’d have thunk just a couple of years ago that the Dodgers would be in the market to fill their rotation with a signing like this?


The dodgers seem always to pull it together.  Carrasco is getting 15 million as our 5th starter.  I wonder who will be better this year?


Spotrac calculates Rodon’s market value at six years, $195 million.

Reports are six years, $162 million from the Yankees, or $5.5 million AAV less than the Spotrac estimate.


I read he took a year less because he wanted to play for the Yanks.


Why would the Mets sign another catcher?  I thought that they had three already.


DanDietrich said:

I read he took a year less because he wanted to play for the Yanks.

and that's what happened.  A contract slightly below deGrom's.


DanDietrich said:

Why would the Mets sign another catcher?  I thought that they had three already.

But do they? I like the move. McCann is going to be traded for nothing, Nido will be the backup and Alvarez will be DH/catcher. They obviously don't feel Alvarez is ready to be the full time catcher and we saw what Nido and McCann provided last year. 


mfpark said:

and that's what happened. A contract slightly below deGrom's.

DeGrom’s AAV is $37 million; Rodon’s would be $27 million.


DanDietrich said:

I read he took a year less because he wanted to play for the Yanks.

I had also heard that there weren't a lot of teams left that wanted to spend that kind of dough on a pitcher. With the Mets and Rangers already done, Rodon's market had shrunk. 


jfinnegan said:

DanDietrich said:

Why would the Mets sign another catcher?  I thought that they had three already.

But do they? I like the move. McCann is going to be traded for nothing, Nido will be the backup and Alvarez will be DH/catcher. They obviously don't feel Alvarez is ready to be the full time catcher and we saw what Nido and McCann provided last year. 

Narvaez has had a few years where his bat has been pretty good for a catcher, and a few years where he was clueless at bat.  The knock on him early in his career was that he was not so hot behind the plate, but he turned that around to become a good pitch-framer with decent basic skills.  If he can again have a productive year at bat he will be a big plus for the Mets at a position that was an automatic-out much of last year.

McCann had a terrible year last year, but has had some good years at bat in the recent past.  He is also at $12.5MM per year for 2023 and 2024, so if they trade him they likely need to eat some of his salary.  Not sure how much trade value he brings even with that.  

Nido is a pure defensive specialist, but he is also relatively cheap with two more years of arbitration left.  And Scherzer preferred to pitch to Nido last year, which is something I guess.

Alvarez is said to be at least a year away from being a full-time MLB catcher.  Not to mention, if they hold him off a while they get to push his MLB eligibility date back one more year.

My guess, and it is just a guess, is that they shop McCann to see if there is interest but wind up holding him and cutting Nido (or sending him to the minors if he has any options left).  Alvarez will start the season in the minors and get called up as a second catcher-DH around the break.


DaveSchmidt said:

DeGrom’s AAV is $37 million; Rodon’s would be $27 million.

Yes, as discussed earlier, he seemed inclined to go for length of guarantee.  And theoretically he should be productive longer than deGrom, who mainly was purchased for the next two years by the Rangers (if he is as great beyond that, then that is bonus-jack).

I think it was pretty obvious he was not going to get 7 years and $200MM, and I think he got to 6 years by dropping the overall value (and because he is relatively young compared to other FA aces).  Either way, a very wealthy man, and on paper the Yankees have an imposing starting five.  Severino and Montas would be higher in the rotation for pretty much any other team.  If all stay healthy that is a lot of fire power from 1-5.


mfpark said:

DaveSchmidt said:

DeGrom’s AAV is $37 million; Rodon’s would be $27 million.

Yes, as discussed earlier, he seemed inclined to go for length of guarantee.  And theoretically he should be productive longer than deGrom, who mainly was purchased for the next two years by the Rangers (if he is as great beyond that, then that is bonus-jack).

I think it was pretty obvious he was not going to get 7 years and $200MM, and I think he got to 6 years by dropping the overall value (and because he is relatively young compared to other FA aces).  Either way, a very wealthy man, and on paper the Yankees have an imposing starting five.  Severino and Montas would be higher in the rotation for pretty much any other team.  If all stay healthy that is a lot of fire power from 1-5.

Interested to know what "Dave from Maplewood" thinks. He's the guy who called WFAN last April to say he's tired of "13 years of lousy baseball"  vampire


Trevor May gets 8 million from the As for one year.  And people say the Mets overspend.


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