Hurricane Florence and Potential Local Impacts

I thought this was an interesting read on testing the new hurricane model FV-3 

https://www.citylab.com/design/2018/09/maplab-of-all-the-ways-to-track-a-hurricane/570100/


NotoriousEAM said:
 WxNut2.0: That was an amazing explanation. Great job! And great job, Max! You two are the best!

 

BG9 said:
Completely agree. A masterful explanation.
And the very best congratulations on you doctorate, WxNut. You certainly hit the jackpot in picking meteorology. A career that can't help but grow in importance and excitement. 

 Thank you both! I appreciate that very much!


Komarovsky said:


WxNut2.0 said:

conandrob240 said:
all the way down to a 2 already? 
 One mph short of a 3. Which means its impacts are effectively the same. We need a better scale.
Central pressure should be the standard, it's a continuous variable and all. Millibars are communist moon units though so no god fearing American would ever use them.  

This is a very interesting idea, but there is some issue with it. In my dissertation research, we defined cyclone intensity  using this method. We took the average surface pressure in a box encapsulating a cyclone and used that single number to define the intensity. For our purposes, this was sufficient, however in the real world it presents a couple of issues. First of all, to the average end-user, central pressure is kind of meaningless as the concerns that they have are with the impacts that come with the wind, rain, etc., not the pressure. 

The bigger issue though in my opinion is that in using this metric, one needs to consider the environmental pressure surrounding the cyclone. Wind is driven by the pressure gradient, where the stronger the gradient (e.g., the difference in pressure over a specific distance), the stronger the wind. But lets consider two cyclones of the same central minimum pressure that are either a) embedded within environments characterized by different ambient pressures; or b) are of considerably different sizes. The smaller storm thats a) embedded within the higher ambient pressure; or b) the one that is smaller always have the stronger wind and attendant impacts because the pressure gradients will be stronger. So for the purposes of research, I agree with your idea. But in practice it can become an issue.


maps said:
I thought this was an interesting read on testing the new hurricane model FV-3 
https://www.citylab.com/design/2018/09/maplab-of-all-the-ways-to-track-a-hurricane/570100/

So FV3 is actually not just a hurricane model, it's set to replace the GFS next year as our American global model. Technically speaking, the FV3 is the "dynamics engine" of the new model, and actually was in the model I did all of my PhD research using. Its a cool system.


And back on topic: Florence has slowed to a crawl off the coast. The Deluge is beginning even with the winds down a little. But still a very powerful storm that's going to cause a lot of flooding. 


This morning.  The eye is just northeast of Wilmington.


There is a possibility that the remnants of Florence will pass close to us Monday night through all day Tuesday.

Wind would not be an issue, but the system could drop 1 - 2" of rain with localized downpours pushing the total in small areas over 4".  The ground is saturated so streams would fill quickly and areas prone to flooding could flood.

From the NWS: 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-160900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
There is potential for heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday
night with the passage of the remains of Florence. There is still
some uncertainty on the track of this remnant low, but there is
increasing confidence in a swath of 1 to 2 plus inches of rain,
and locally higher amounts of 5 or more inches are also possible
in its track. Due to recent rain events, grounds are saturated and
river and streams flows are running well above normal. If the
heavy rain swath ends up over the local region, there will be
potential for urban and poor drainage flooding as well as flooding
along quick responding small rivers, streams, and creeks.



drummerboy said:
I came across this New Yorker article about the NWS that I thought people might find interesting


https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/inside-the-national-weather-service-the-digital-eye-of-hurricane-florence

They do amazing work. This is why the old “meteorologist is the only job where you can be wrong 50% of the time” joke is so annoying. 


WxNut2.0 said:


drummerboy said:
I came across this New Yorker article about the NWS that I thought people might find interesting


https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/inside-the-national-weather-service-the-digital-eye-of-hurricane-florence
They do amazing work. This is why the old “meteorologist is the only job where you can be wrong 50% of the time” joke is so annoying. 

Well, most people have no idea of the complexities involved, so they think they're being clever when they say that. (while they cheer the .300 hitter who makes an out 70% of the time)

I have a programming background, and I'm in awe of those computer models. It seems like magic to me.


I came across this map on the BBC site. Looks like Florence, or what's left of it, will be crossing right over NJ on Tue/Wed.

Will there be any significant rain left in it?



drummerboy said:
I came across this map on the BBC site. Looks like Florence, or what's left of it, will be crossing right over NJ on Tue/Wed.
Will there be any significant rain left in it?



There’s actually a non-zero chance this thing curls back and comes back ashore in the Carolinas. Small chance, but some model solutions support it. 


drummerboy said:
I came across this map on the BBC site. Looks like Florence, or what's left of it, will be crossing right over NJ on Tue/Wed.
Will there be any significant rain left in it?



 Less than when I posted the other day.  Rain tonight and tomorrow, could be heavy at times.  1 - 1.5 inches, perhaps heavier in spots.


It looks very heavy over Pennsylvania right now. It's definitely on its way here.


It is here.  We have light rain in Maplewood and the barometer has started dropping.  That said, this is a much weaker system than it was just three days ago (or even yesterday) and the worst will be heading north of MAPSO through upstate NY.


Here on the edge of SO and MW there is a waterfall in the neighbors back yard and a literal river running down my driveway. The only ever time we have seen water like this was during Hurricane Irene. CRAZY!!!!


cant even imagine 24 hours or more of that !



Third Street is closed by the train tracks.


Flo’s remnants produced a very strong tornado in Richmond, VA yesterday: 

https://twitter.com/abc13news/status/1041791340428832768?s=21


Very glad that so far everyone’s safe...


Heard that there was a microburst in Summit yesterday afternoon. Winds appeared all of a sudden with loss of power and trees pulled out of the ground.


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