How would you explain Biden being +10 net approval rating as late as July 2021? The lack of Republican support, and the Fox News scaremongering, was the same then as it is now.
How would you explain Biden being +10 net approval rating as late as July 2021? The lack of Republican support, and the Fox News scaremongering, was the same then as it is now.
What was happening in the U.S. and the world at that time? There's your explanation.
What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?
And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur.
Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?
it speaks to the quality of your prognostications. And of course you aren't going to bring it up yourself.
There was no prognostication. As I said Nov 13 on another thread:
"I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it."
You've produced nothing to support your claim that I made a prediction on the midterms, other than just continuing to say I did.
Yeah yeah, you'll say you don't wanna or don't have time or something. But if there was a gotcha opportunity, you'd find the time.
what should any of us have been concerned about, it not a disaster in the midterms? That Joe's feelings would be hurt by a low number?
Power to persuade, prospects for passing legislation, strength of 2024 GOP nominee(s) - stuff that's pretty central to a presidency in my view, and all borne out by research as previously posted.
And, the midterms - which weren't too bad for Dems, but they did just lose the House which isn't exactly a trifle, so you may want to make your victory lap a quick one. Another poster recently opined that the Dems may have kept the house if Biden was stronger - there's no way of knowing this of course, but I think it's a plausible theory.
Add it all up and if I'm a supporter of a president, I want the president to have a high approval rating, and not just for optics. A supporter being apathetic about the number is rather peculiar in my opinion.
well, the badgering of people who didn't agree with you started with this, so it's not like we made up your emphasis on the midterms.
it's insane that we're still having this conversation. It's not as though a president's approval rating is this independent entity that moves up and down by itself.
for Biden's approval rating to have been significantly higher in Nov '22 than a year earlier would have taken some combination of lowered inflation (esp. food and gas prices), no war in Ukraine, earlier passage of a larger infrastructure bill, higher % of vaccinated Americans tamping down the Omicron wave, or any number of other good news for Americans.
And if all those things happened, nobody going into the voting booth would likely have thought about Biden's specific approval number. They would have been happy that a lot of negative 2021 events started to recede into the background.
We're not really going to know more about why people voted for months and maybe even years as political scientists delve into the vote patterns, the exit polls, other post election surveys, etc. But it's certainly possible that gerrymandering was more important in the GOP taking the House than anything Joe Biden did or didn't do.
How would you explain Biden being +10 net approval rating as late as July 2021? The lack of Republican support, and the Fox News scaremongering, was the same then as it is now.
Not really sure what you're asking me. If you're asking me to opine on what mix of the things I worry about and wish were different, and things that I think are out of Biden's control, are impacting his approval rating, I don't have an answer. I don't know. What's more, I'm suspicious of any definitive claims by anyone to know.
A better question to ask me would be, what do I wish Biden were doing differently? And I would answer that without reference to his approval rating.
I think the point of getting elected is to try and get things done. Sometimes the ends up positively impacting electoral prospects, sometimes negatively. But pay too much attention to that, and politics collapses to a rather pointless exercise in getting elected in order to get re-elected.
Added to above -- ever notice how pundits who are sure they know exactly what OfficeHolder X needs to do to improve their approval rating is to enact the pundit's preferred policy platform?
I am encouraged the the Democrats did as well as they did despite Biden's approval ratings. This tells me that the MAGA shtick is wearing out and that women actually do want the right to choose. As far as Biden is concerned, he is facing some stiff headwinds in the face of the lingering pandemic, supply chain shocks, inflation due to the Russo-Ukrainian War and supply chain issues and the Afghanistan fiasco 20 years in the making. Also, he is too old by ten years or more. I really hope he doesn't run again and that the Democrats find somebody appealing.
The way to end it is to just stop beating the dead horse and move on.
my way of ending it was voting straight line democrat. And I know quite a few friends who did the same thing. Biden’s number could have been 5% I don’t care.
my way of ending it was voting straight line democrat. And I know quite a few friends who did the same thing. Biden’s number could have been 5% I don’t care.
I just mean that once a discussion gets tedious and it is clear that neither side is moving from their position, just drop it and be secure that you are right and the other guys is wrong. ;-)
I just mean that once a discussion gets tedious and it is clear that neither side is moving from their position, just drop it and be secure that you are right and the other guys is wrong. ;-)
And like Freddie Krueger, it’s not dead but will be back.
I think if the Republicans can successfully rid themselves of Trump, Democrats should be very wary of the 2024 elections. They have a tough road to hold the Senate, and Heaven knows what will happen in the house. The specter of Trump loomed over some of the Republican candidates this time around who ended up losing very narrowly. The Senate races in Pennsylvania and Georgia were ridiculously close given the Republican candidates. The governor race in Arizona also was very narrow with a really radical republican election denier running.
Unless some kind of miraculous turn of events comes to pass, Democrats will not be in charge of the House of Representatives for the next two years. That will make it difficult for the Biden administration to notch any further legislative wins that will benefit the American people. And if Joe Biden chooses to run again in 2024, I think DeSantis would be a more dangerous opponent for him. I think Biden would defeat Donald Trump again if he were the nominee.
DeSantis has the advantage of being fairly clear of Trump’s circle, even though he is the same kind of white nationalist, homophobic, trans phobic autocrat that would fit right in in Trump world. But he’s got an opportunity to polish up his image for the national stage.
I just mean that once a discussion gets tedious and it is clear that neither side is moving from their position, just drop it and be secure that you are right and the other guys is wrong. ;-)
I need to be better about letting stupidity speak for itself.
I just mean that once a discussion gets tedious and it is clear that neither side is moving from their position, just drop it and be secure that you are right and the other guys is wrong. ;-)
I need to be better about letting stupidity speak for itself.
Apparently so. It's nice to live rent-free in your head, but come on use a q-tip once in a while, it would be nice to have some cross-ventilation!
it's insane that we're still having this conversation. It's not as though a president's approval rating is this independent entity that moves up and down by itself.
for Biden's approval rating to have been significantly higher in Nov '22 than a year earlier would have taken some combination of lowered inflation (esp. food and gas prices), no war in Ukraine, earlier passage of a larger infrastructure bill, higher % of vaccinated Americans tamping down the Omicron wave, or any number of other good news for Americans.
And if all those things happened, nobody going into the voting booth would likely have thought about Biden's specific approval number. They would have been happy that a lot of negative 2021 events started to recede into the background.
We're not really going to know more about why people voted for months and maybe even years as political scientists delve into the vote patterns, the exit polls, other post election surveys, etc. But it's certainly possible that gerrymandering was more important in the GOP taking the House than anything Joe Biden did or didn't do.
Of course nobody goes into a voting booth thinking about Biden's specific approval number. You know, and I know, that that is a ridiculous notion, so you're just being disingenuous.
A low approval number is a function of more people not liking Biden and/or his policies. So some of these people will go into the voting booth and say, F Biden, I'm voting R.
That's the causative factor. Yeah yeah I know, correlation does not imply causation. I'm aware of that fact. But sometimes when there's correlation, there's causation. You seem to think "correlation does not imply causation" means "correlation precludes causation."
Is this now the Biden Approval Rating debate thread?
My thought on that is the presence of Trump since 2015 and a global pandemic since 2019 has upended a lot of conventional thinking. Incumbents usually win re-election. Incumbents usually lose multiple seats in Congress at the midterms. Presidential approval ratings have some kind of effect (causative or predictive) on the midterms.
There was also a major seismic political event in the Dobbs decision which also rewrote the rulebook for 2022. Nothing was normal this year and lots of people are scratching their heads and trying to make sense of it.
Democrats defied expectations almost everywhere but Florida, so DeSantis has been elevated to the national stage. I think he got dealt a remarkable series of wild cards that gave him a winning hand at this point for the 2024 nomination. Meanwhile Trump was betting everything on drawing on an inside straight but instead of the card he needed he got a wilted slice of lettuce.
I think the Biden approval rating that will be germane to this dicussion will be in 2023 and early 2024. If inflation has cooled off, if gas prices are under $3 and interest rates have leveled (or started to come back down) and he has a 54% approval rating I think that will bode poorly for Trump. A popular and successful Biden would kick him back to Mar-A-Lago again in the general election. So I think Republicans will be looking for someone like DeSantis or Hogan.
it's insane that we're still having this conversation. It's not as though a president's approval rating is this independent entity that moves up and down by itself.
for Biden's approval rating to have been significantly higher in Nov '22 than a year earlier would have taken some combination of lowered inflation (esp. food and gas prices), no war in Ukraine, earlier passage of a larger infrastructure bill, higher % of vaccinated Americans tamping down the Omicron wave, or any number of other good news for Americans.
And if all those things happened, nobody going into the voting booth would likely have thought about Biden's specific approval number. They would have been happy that a lot of negative 2021 events started to recede into the background.
We're not really going to know more about why people voted for months and maybe even years as political scientists delve into the vote patterns, the exit polls, other post election surveys, etc. But it's certainly possible that gerrymandering was more important in the GOP taking the House than anything Joe Biden did or didn't do.
Of course nobody goes into a voting booth thinking about Biden's specific approval number. You know, and I know, that that is a ridiculous notion, so you're just being disingenuous.
A low approval number is a function of more people not liking Biden and/or his policies. So some of these people will go into the voting booth and say, F Biden, I'm voting R.
That's the causative factor. Yeah yeah I know, correlation does not imply causation. I'm aware of that fact. But sometimes when there's correlation, there's causation. You seem to think "correlation does not imply causation" means "correlation precludes causation."
But that's not what it means.
"So some of these people will go into the voting booth and say, F Biden, I'm voting R. "
This is something you think happens with some frequency, but for which you have no proof.
I personally have never seen a poll which indicates that displeasure towards a sitting President was a determining factor in voting for the other party in a midterm. Such polls may exist, but I've never seen one.
(DS - go look.)
Don't forget that the President's party inevitably loses during midterms, regardless of Presidential popularity.
The problem here is determining the motivation of that great middle morass of "independent voters", which I've always contended is a fool's errand.
Apparently so. It's nice to live rent-free in your head, but come on use a q-tip once in a while, it would be nice to have some cross-ventilation!
You seem to have more air in your head than you need. But we don't need you to share it.
Hello, Dennis.
Look at it this way. Biden's lower approval rating vs say, 18 months ago means that there are some voters who used to like Biden but now they don't. We can agree on that, yes?
Many of these disenchanted voters voted in the midterms. I'm sure some of these voters voted based on the merits (or lack thereof) of the candidates on the ballots, but -- and this is important -- others voted R down the line as a flip off to Biden. Why do I believe this? Well, Dennis, I was one of those voters in 2006. I never voted for W, but I mostly approved of his job performance in 2001-02, before I hated him w/ the Iraq war. So in 2006, I voted D down the line, even if that meant holding my nose to vote for Menendez.
I'm sure I'm not the only person to have voted on that basis, in that election or in this one.
That is the causative factor I've been referring to. If someone believes Biden's approval rating is not a causative factor for the midterms, that person denies the existence of the voter behavior I've outlined.
The difference is, my argument makes sense intuitively. And, it has supporting correlation numbers which, while they may not prove causation, at least support an argument for causation.
What does your argument have, other than winning the MOL straw poll?
It doesn't have common sense, because it reduces the voter to a one-issue moron.
Well that's interesting, as you and ml1 frequently rant about how moronic non-Dem voters are. Now you're basing an argument on saying voters - in particular ind/crossover voters - aren't morons?
How would you explain Biden being +10 net approval rating as late as July 2021? The lack of Republican support, and the Fox News scaremongering, was the same then as it is now.