NJ's $15 / Hour Minimum Wage Law

terp said:

tom said:
"Free" isn't a very useful concept when it comes to tuition. Your parents pay taxes all their lives. You pay taxes for 40-50 years after you start working yourself. 
Somewhere in between laying out all that money to local, state and federal governments, you get to go to school for four years. 
And someone is complaining that you're getting something for free??

Are you saying that we're going to have free tuition without raising taxes?  I'll have what he's having. 

 Um no.

So raise taxes. Everybody benefits from a better-educated workforce. Especially the bourgeoisie. For too long they've benefitted from free access to a workforce that can read, write and do math, all taught at public expense. 

And you know, I don't think they really appreciate this free benefit.

Only rent-seekers benefit from the extortionate student loan industry.

tom said:

terp said:

tom said:
"Free" isn't a very useful concept when it comes to tuition. Your parents pay taxes all their lives. You pay taxes for 40-50 years after you start working yourself. 
Somewhere in between laying out all that money to local, state and federal governments, you get to go to school for four years. 
And someone is complaining that you're getting something for free??

Are you saying that we're going to have free tuition without raising taxes?  I'll have what he's having. 

 Um no.


So raise taxes. Everybody benefits from a better-educated workforce. Especially the bourgeoisie. For too long they've benefitted from free access to a workforce that can read, write and do math, all taught at public expense. 


And you know, I don't think they really appreciate this free benefit.


Only rent-seekers benefit from the extortionate student loan industry.

I don't think there's evidence that free education will improve the quality of education.  I think there is ample evidence to the contrary.  The rent seeking will be amplified from the current system if you give it away for free. 

Your previous response seemed to indicate that free college should be an entitlement for paying taxes your whole life(and your parents), but at least we can agree that taxes will increase as part of this and the GND, and free healthcare, and free Tabasco sauce, because nobody should be forced to eat bland food! 

BTW: Who do you think the rent-seekers are in this student loan system? 

terp said:

In addition, education for everyone will get watered down. We will have many who go because its free.   To keep federal $$ may mean that we need to pass people who don't deserve to pass.  Having people in the class who are less interested in learning will not exactly enhance the experience for those that do. 

I sincerely hope that sprout doesn't take this the wrong way.  I'm sure there is quality at CUNY and perhaps times have changed.  I'm truly glad that it worked for her family and that they put that education to good use.
But someone very close to me used to teach at a CUNY campus.  It was not a very good experience.  It seemed most students were really just unprepared for college.  From what I could tell most wrote at a middle school level.  The expectation was that they should be taught basic writing skills as they learned the topics in their major.  They would not take remedial classes to get them to level because there was no $$ devoted to that.  You could not fail these students even though they really could not do the work.  So, they were pushed along.  

These students had a free K-12 education.  I think the majority also got a free tuition from CUNY.  But it still seems like an awful waste of time & $$. 

I can't speak to the 'quality' of the CUNY institution, their instruction, or the students. However: 

1. having the college degree allowed my parents to apply for the positions that eventually moved them into the middle class (which they could not have applied for without the degrees). 
2. If they had instead carried college loan debt, this would have had a substantial negative impact on our family's financial situation. 

It took over a decade after they got their degrees to shift from working class to lower-middle class (for two full-time working parents of two kids), but I don't think it would have been possible at all without those two conditions. 

From my experience, and the experiences of the many others I knew who did not fare as well, I don't see how approaches that disadvantage the already disadvantaged can be considered smart economic (or moral) approaches. But much of our economic system currently functions that way.

I'm sure that a few readers here will categorically dismiss anything from the AEI, but I think that the statistical evidence from the BLS here is pretty damn strong that the $15 minimum wage is reducing restaurant employment in New York City.

the survey also reported that “76.50% of respondents report reducing employee hours and 36.30% eliminated jobs in 2018 in response to mandated wage increases.” Those staff reductions are showing up in the NYC full-service restaurant employee series from the BLS, see chart above. December 2018 restaurant jobs were down by almost 3,000 (and by 1.64%) from the previous December, and the 2.5% annual decline in March 2018 was the worst annual decline since the sharp collapse in restaurant jobs following 9/11 in 2001. As the chart shows, it usually takes an economic recession to cause year-over-year job losses at NYC’s full-service restaurants, so it’s likely that this a “restaurant recession” that’s tied to the annual series of minimum wage hikes that brought the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour at the end of last year. And the NYC restaurant recession is happening even as the national economy hums along in the 117th month of the second-longest economic expansion in history, and just short of the 120-month record from 1991 to 2001.

Although inflation will eat away at $15 an hour in New Jersey (it'll be like $13.50 per hour in 2019 dollars by 2024), New York City's average income is higher than New Jersey's, so NYC is a place that could much better withstand $15 than New Jersey.

https://www.aei.org/publication/whod-a-thunk-it-the-nyc-minimum-wage-hikes-to-15-an-hour-are-causing-pain-for-many-of-the-citys-restaurants/

Here's an article from the notoriously right-wing, libertarian, Koch-owned New York Eater about restaurants having a hard time. 

https://ny.eater.com/2019/2/19/18226831/minimum-wage-restaurant-reaction-nyc-finances

Runner_Guy said:
I'm sure that a few readers here will categorically dismiss anything from the AEI, but I think that the statistical evidence from the BLS here is pretty damn strong that the $15 minimum wage is reducing restaurant employment in New York City.

I categorically reject anything that takes input in whole numbers (jobs) and crunches it into data down to the ten-thousandths (xx.xx%) in an attempt to look wonky.

Beyond that, restaurant jobs fell a few months last year; they rose a few months. Are we really sure nothing other than the minumum wage was at play in those patterns? And what about the longer trend of declining year-over-year growth in New York City restaurant jobs? 

DaveSchmidt said:

Runner_Guy said:
I'm sure that a few readers here will categorically dismiss anything from the AEI, but I think that the statistical evidence from the BLS here is pretty damn strong that the $15 minimum wage is reducing restaurant employment in New York City.

I categorically reject anything that takes input in whole numbers (jobs) and crunches it into data down to the ten-thousandths (xx.xx%) in an attempt to look wonky.
Beyond that, restaurant jobs fell a few months last year; they rose a few months. Are we really sure nothing other than the minumum wage was at play in those patterns? And what about the longer trend of declining year-over-year growth in New York City restaurant jobs? 

I'm suspicious of a chart that shows % change and not total number of jobs in the industry. Given that most of the months seem to show job increases (smaller than pre-2015, but increases nonetheless), the overall trend in jobs post minimum wage hike is probably an increase in restaurant jobs overall.

ml1 said:

DaveSchmidt said:

Runner_Guy said:
I'm sure that a few readers here will categorically dismiss anything from the AEI, but I think that the statistical evidence from the BLS here is pretty damn strong that the $15 minimum wage is reducing restaurant employment in New York City.

I categorically reject anything that takes input in whole numbers (jobs) and crunches it into data down to the ten-thousandths (xx.xx%) in an attempt to look wonky.
Beyond that, restaurant jobs fell a few months last year; they rose a few months. Are we really sure nothing other than the minumum wage was at play in those patterns? And what about the longer trend of declining year-over-year growth in New York City restaurant jobs? 

I'm suspicious of a chart that shows % change and not total number of jobs in the industry. Given that most of the months seem to show job increases (smaller than pre-2015, but increases nonetheless), the overall trend in jobs post minimum wage hike is probably an increase in restaurant jobs overall.

 Ok, fair points, but given that New York City's economy, tourist arrivals, and population are growing, you would expect a continued increase in restaurant jobs too.  

Although restaurant job slowdown and losses haven't been as steep as they were during recessions, the effect isn't unlike that of a recession either.  (and when NYC actually has a recession?)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/new-york-doesn-t-need-the-jobs-amazon-had-to-offer?srnd=opinion

have more restaurants opened in NYC during that time frame?

There has also been record breaking commercial rents in NYC -- study does not seem to take into account the increasing rents and other expenses. 

There are too many other factors and unknowns to just blame the minimum wage as the key factor in restaurants closing.  One factor not discussed anywhere is the large number of employees now working from home one or more days a week.  Even if just 10% of the workforce now worked one day a week from home, that would  be a tremendous impact on a reduced demand at restaurants.