Winter Storm Wednesday 3/7

Details very uncertain at this time, but a system developing in the upper Great Lakes has the potential to drop some snow on us Tuesday night through Thursday morning 3/6 - 8.

All I can say with confidence right now is there is likly to be some precipitation, and this system should not be nearly as potent as last Friday's.


As long as there's no more sideways snow like Friday. 


Most likely outcome at this time = more snow, less sideways


Thanks for the heads-up Max. Timing will be crucial for some flight commuting plans I have. Question is whether to go Wednesday morning (original plan) or leave Tuesday night and get a hotel room.

So I'll be watching this space.


The National Weather Service has written a post explaining the difficulties in forecasting this system:

"Another coastal storm is forecast to affect our area in the middle of the week. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains states will approach the region through Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, a secondary low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast, then head northeast, to just NE of Cape Cod by Thursday morning. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty!

This graphic shows the Weather Prediction Center's forecast for the primary and secondary low. You can see all the possible locations of each low at different time steps. The red circle shows the general possible locations of what will be the developing secondary low Wednesday morning. As you can see, it covers a lot of area! The large uncertainty with where this low will be translates to large uncertainty with the track (black arrow off the East Coast). If this low tracks closer to the coast (black arrow moves closer to the coast) it will mean warmer air and more rain. If the low tracks farther east (black arrow moves away from the coast) it will mean colder air and more snow (but could mean less in the way of precipitation).

Right now, we are calling for 3"- 6" snow for the entire tri-state by 7 pm Wednesday (however, more precipitation is expected after this time frame)."




conandrob240 said:

any snow is a bad snow

Having grown up in a place where it never snowed, I beg to differ.  I may tire of shoveling it but there is always something magical about seeing it come down.


please, then, feel free to come take mine. I'd rather be in a place where it never snows and visit one where it does only when I choose to


The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area.

While there is still some disagreement among the models at this time over the exact track of the storm, there is a growing likelihood that we will see 6 or more inches of snow mid week.

Timing:  Rain Tuesday night, changing over to snow possibly after midnight or early Wednesday.  Wednesday snow or rain all day.  We will know more about intensity tomorrow morning as the system sets up.  Snow continues into Wednesday night.

Wind is not expected to be severe during this event.

From the NWS: 

"Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
327 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
052100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
327 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts."


Max..as always thank you.  And thank you for your excellent coverage of the Nor'easter.  You are appreciated by so many and rightfully so.



Thanks as always Max.  Seems like it is still very much up in the air at this time.  Some reports I am seeing call for mostly rain; others say mostly to all snow.  One report was talking 12-16 inches in northern NJ and eastern PA, with 6 inches in my area (Motown). 

Either way, winds will be gusty, though not as bad as the last storm.  Still, with a lot of liquid and already compromised trees and roots, we could lose a lot of trees and power lines.  And if it is a wet snow, forget about it.


This is yet another of those storms with a steep upslope of snow totals from west to east depending on the exact storm track.  The models right now are in decent agreement about what happens along the track, but not exactly where the track will be, and as we have seen 50 miles east or west can make a huge difference. 


For those keeping score at home, it is the GFS and NAM showing the most snow, with a more westward track for the storm.  They both show a 4 - 8" range for MAPSO, with significantly more snow, over a foot in some cases, west and north.  The NAM is a little more hyped, but that is a normal error for that model with these systems as it is really just coming into range.

The Euro sets up futher east, so less precipitation for us but a higher percentage would be snow, so still nets to around 6".  However, there are indications that the Euro might be about to shift west in the next couple of runs, closer to the warmer wetter GFS/NAM solution.

This year, for this type of storm, there is no one model that seems to be more reliable.


Whether it sets up east or hugs the coast, it is going to be a mess from Tuesday night through Wednesday, and there will likely be power outages yet again.  {{sigh}}


As always, thank you Max!


so the odds of an 11:19 am Wedn. flight taking off from EWR? grrrrr



I am always surprised at how much the Mt Holly and Upton forecasters' discussions can vary around the same storm event.  I am certainly unqualified to read them with more than a cursory level of understanding, but it often feels like they are at odds with one another. 

For this storm, Upton has a watch out for the entire area, while Mt Holly has a watch only for northern NJ (and the Poconos).   I don't think the difference is just because Upton is more coastal-focused.  

I appreciate that forecasting is an art informed by science in some ways, but I would think that the NWS folks would work together towards consensus when they are in neighboring areas.



Klinker said:



conandrob240 said:

any snow is a bad snow

Having grown up in a place where it never snowed, I beg to differ.  I may tire of shoveling it but there is always something magical about seeing it come down.

Me too! (I grew up in Houston, Texas where it can be years between snowstorms.)  But I'm always glad when it comes at a less inconvenient time and without too much wind or other damaging effects along with the snow.


When is the next update? 5pm?


6-12 inches...  3 days after what was basically a hurricane.. . ugh


BOMBOGENESIS!!!  My new favorite word.


 angry let's hope. There's always that April storm that sneaks its way in.

mammabear said:

one last hurrah! 




mfpark said:

I am always surprised at how much the Mt Holly and Upton forecasters' discussions can vary around the same storm event.  I am certainly unqualified to read them with more than a cursory level of understanding, but it often feels like they are at odds with one another. 

For this storm, Upton has a watch out for the entire area, while Mt Holly has a watch only for northern NJ (and the Poconos).   I don't think the difference is just because Upton is more coastal-focused.  

I appreciate that forecasting is an art informed by science in some ways, but I would think that the NWS folks would work together towards consensus when they are in neighboring areas.

They do work together, but you're talking about an event where a sharp snow gradient will likely set up and will result in significantly different results across a relatively small area. It shouldn't be a total surprise that their forecasts are different. These are incredibly difficult events to forecast, when you consider that the literal geometry of the pre-cursor upper-tropospheric disturbance could be the difference between a relatively ordinary cyclone and a bomb. There's so so so many variables at play here, and the models are all very sensitive to so many things. For what its worth, I don't trust the NAM as far as I can throw it when it comes to snowfall forecasts. It isn't tuned for snow.

The hype is always the biggest in immediate aftermath of an event like what we just had. This will not be that. This storm will not be as intense as the one we just experienced, but the impacts could be bigger if that makes sense. The ambient airmass is more favorable for snow than what we had last week. That all said, I'm still not totally convinced this will be a huge snowfall event. As always, it could be, but the models are still pretty dispersive with their solutions. 


FWIW, heres the European model probabilistic snowfall forecast. 72 hour probability of greater than 6 inches of snow. This is why NWS NYC/Upton and Mt. Holly having different forecasts is not surprising. 


Making a shiva call in the city tonight so may not get to update until the morning, but still a wide range to the forecast as wxnut explained above, 5 - 8" +/- and could end with rain, or not.  Models are still leaning west, and I only mentioned the NAM because for once it was not wildly overrating the snow but more or less in agreement with the GFS, but to wxnut's point that is probably a coincidence.


Jeez, it looks like this one will be another big one. Last Friday's was tremendous. Lots of death and destruction and disruption.


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