Rain and snow week of 12/9

Just a head's up that this rain will continue on and off today (Monday 12/9) and tomorrow, and is likely to change over to snow in the wee early hours of Wednesday (12/11) morning. At this time, looking at perhaps 1" - 4" falling through a period of predawn to mid morning Wednesday.

As of this forecast, the probability of ice or freezing rain is pretty low throughout the period, and it is possible that ground level temperatures will not drop below freezing until well after the snow ends. This means that what falls is most likely to be heavy, slushy, and mostly just annoying.

As the NWS said in this morning's forecast discussion, "There is still plenty of time for change, so stay tuned."


Tuesday morning (12/10) update.

Forecast on track more or less, with off and on rain today becoming steadier overnight. Then early Wednesday morning changing over to snow, with a possible 1" - 4" accumulation by mid morning.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas just east of us, including Newark and Irvington. Although the depth of snow expected does not quite meet advisory criteria, the wet roads with snow falling during the morning rush hour raises enough concern that they have gone ahead with it. A very slight shift to the west would add an inch or two to their 1" - 2" forecast for our towns and put us in the Advisory area. There is enough uncertainty in the guidance that I am staying with 1" - 4" for now.


I am very skeptical that after two consecutive days of 50°+ temps and rain, the ground will cool quickly enough to allow for 4” of snow accumulation. I’ve been wrong before, but I’d be pretty surprised. 


WxNut2.0 said:

I am very skeptical that after two consecutive days of 50°+ temps and rain, the ground will cool quickly enough to allow for 4” of snow accumulation. I’ve been wrong before, but I’d be pretty surprised. 

 I am more concerned about duration than hourly QPF if the cold front slows or stalls for a couple of hours.


The true cold air would be well behind the front. I don’t think if it stalls it would make much of a difference with regards to snow accumulation. It’s going to take a while to cool the ground, especially considering how wet it is right now. 


Tonight (Tuesday 12/10) the guidance is a little warmer overnight so trending towards the lower end of the forecast snowfall, in the 1 - 2" range.

Snow is still expected to be falling at dawn Wednesday though so do still expect some impact to the morning rush hour.


There's an 80% chance it's snowing right now.

I don't like to deal in absolutes when it comes to weather. 


It was raining when I checked at about 6:45 and its snowing now.  


Will end in an hour or so

Hi Max:

May be too much to ask, but any idea when the next storm might be?  I get the worst headaches just before a storm and I'm going to use your posts to better prepare.


bklyngirl said:

Hi Max:

May be too much to ask, but any idea when the next storm might be?  I get the worst headaches just before a storm and I'm going to use your posts to better prepare.

 Maybe next week


WxNut2.0 said:

bklyngirl said:

Hi Max:

May be too much to ask, but any idea when the next storm might be?  I get the worst headaches just before a storm and I'm going to use your posts to better prepare.

 Maybe next week

 I would think that this would be the case pretty much all winter long.


sac said:

WxNut2.0 said:

bklyngirl said:

Hi Max:

May be too much to ask, but any idea when the next storm might be?  I get the worst headaches just before a storm and I'm going to use your posts to better prepare.

 Maybe next week

 I would think that this would be the case pretty much all winter long.

 That is why he got a PhD in meteorology!


sac said:

WxNut2.0 said:

bklyngirl said:

Hi Max:

May be too much to ask, but any idea when the next storm might be?  I get the worst headaches just before a storm and I'm going to use your posts to better prepare.

 Maybe next week

 I would think that this would be the case pretty much all winter long.

 Generally yes, but not necessarily. Depends entirely on what the jet stream does, which depends on a lot of other things. There’s some model guidance hinting at a storm next week though. 


What about the projected storm (rain?) Friday onto Saturday this week?


joan_crystal said:

What about the projected storm (rain?) Friday onto Saturday this week?

 Should be rain 



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