November snowpocalypse

Thursday night 11/16 into Friday chance of wintery mix, including rain, snow, and sleet.  Driving conditions could be slick.  Accumulating snow not likely at this time, but Friday morning commute could be affected.


Note that on jerseyboys thread wxnut is concerned that there could be accumulating snow, up to 3", so also take that into account.


The two big models, the GFS and ECMWF very much remain at odds. The GFS has a wintry mix to a dusting, whereas the EC crushes us with 6 inches of snow. I’ve attached both forecasts below, valid around midnight Friday. I won’t go into a detailed explanation of why each model is doing what it’s doing, however I will say I think the ECMWF is overdoing it. I’d be willing to bet, as of now, we likely see somewhere closer to the GFS solution. We shouldn’t discount the euro as a possibility though.


Edited to add: I’m very much breaking my self-imposed “don’t post raw model snow map images” rule, simply to give an understanding of how much forecast spread remains even at two and a half days out. And people wonder why meteorologists get it wrong sometimes...


Funny enough the FV3, which will be taking over for the GFS next year as the American global model, prefers the ECMWF solution. So maybe there’s something there. Still time before this becomes clear though. This is valid 7am Friday morning. 


Looking at Thursday - Friday, the models are still showing a wide spread, but the most likely forecast at this time is for some accumulation of snow and sleet, no more than three inches (and I think less) that will change over to rain in the early evening Thursday. More concerning to me is the chance of freezing rain and ice during the changeover. By 9 - 10 pm expect it will be all rain, continuing as rain until it tapers off Friday morning.

Your takeaway at this time should be is caution. This forecast could and likely will change in the next 24 hours. This is *not* likely to be the six-inch snowstorm that some sources are touting, though.  Some people on the internet took that snow map that wxnut posted and did exactly the wrong thing and made it their forecast.  That is why, as he said, we don't depend too heavily on the snowmaps the models throw off -- especially this early in the season.


At this time forecast remains on track for a wintery mix tomorrow (Thurs 11/15) afternoon with minor accumulations changing over to rain in the evening through Friday morning.  Caution is indicated for slippery conditions especially around the changeover.  

Note that conditions are expected to be worse, with measurable accumulations and significant icing possible, north and west of MAPSO.

The models still show some disagreement about the front-end precipitation, with the Euro showing more snow.  The NWS does not buy the more severe scenario, but be alert for changes in the forecast.  It is not unheard of for weather forecasts to change.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for possible snow Thursday 11/15 from 1 to 9 pm.

What this means: Tomorrow's storm will start off with a shot of snow, likely mixing with rain, changing over to wintery mix and then all rain as the afternoon and evening progresses. Although there may be some snow accumulation, especially on grassy areas and at higher elevations, the later rain will wash the snow away. Rain will continue into the morning commute, but just rain. There are two concerns here that the NWS is highlighting. The first is that it is the first snow/sleet of the season and people may simply not be prepared for it and not take the slippery conditions seriously. The second is, as we have been saying, during the changeover there may be periods of sleet and freezing rain and roads may become icy at times. This is that sneaky ice that you do not always know is there until you try to step on the brakes.

The takeaway from this is, be careful out there. This is far from a milk-and-egger, but conditions will need to be respected. Drive safely and watch out for the other guy who doesn't.

Full text of the advisory:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Taunton MA
241 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

NJZ004-104>108-150345-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.181115T1800Z-181116T0200Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
241 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 9 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the accumulation will be on the grass, but roads should become slushy during the evening commute. Snow will change to rain in the evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties.

Since this is the first snowfall of the season, drivers will need
to exercise their winter driving skills. Plan on extra travel
time.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.



Only minor tweeks to the forecast this morning as there is good model consensus around yesterday's forecast.  Wintery mix starting out as mostly snow around midday changes over to rain over the course of the afternoon and evening.  Rain washes away the inch or so of snow on the grass and continues into Friday morning, perhaps ending a bit  earlier than originally thought.

Main concerns remain icing during the changeover.  North and west there are more significant probabilities of snow.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from midday through 9 pm.


I have this weird feeling we are getting more than 1-2”. 


Have we lost enough leaves for the power lines to be ok?


Change in the forecast!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
NJZ004-104-105-107-160300-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.181115T1800Z-181116T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0009.181115T1800Z-181116T0300Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-
Including the cities of Paterson, Clifton, Passaic, Wayne,
Hackensack, Teaneck, Morningside Height, Garfield, Bergenfield,
Englewood, Lodi, East Orange, Irvington, Bloomfield, West Orange,
Montclair, Orange, Livingston, Union, Plainfield, Westfield,
Scotch Plains, Cranford, Summit, and Clark
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7  inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze expected. Snowfall  rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. Winds gusting as high  as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Eastern Passaic, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex and  Western Union Counties.
* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.



4:30 flight to NC cancelled, auto rebook for 10:00pm.  I rebooked to 1:30, got to airport at 12, flight delayed to 5:55.  Assuming that will not go but still hopeful.  Back home waiting.  Uhg.


Technically, they have us on the line between the warning and the advisory. I need to see more about what caused them to change the warning as they have not yet changed the forecast (but they will). Details later but i wanted to get this posted.



max_weisenfeld said:

Technically, they have us on the line between the warning and the advisory. I need to see more about what caused them to change the warning as they have not yet changed the forecast (but they will). Details later but i wanted to get this posted.


 


No problem. Looks like the ECMWF and FV3 may win out. 


ugh! I knew I should have stayed home. 


Thanks, guys though. 


WxNut2.0 said:
.... Looks like the ECMWF and FV3 may win out. 

 

In English, please.


Short term model guidance is blitzing the region with liquid-equivalent precip by 8pm. 10-1 ratio snow totals are showing up around 8 inches. That said, 10-1 may be a little high this time of year, which is reflected in the dynamic snow total approximation snow forecasts. They have us at about 6. 


Formerlyjerseyjack said:


WxNut2.0 said:
.... Looks like the ECMWF and FV3 may win out. 
 


In English, please.

 Two model forecasts, which I posted pics from a couple of days ago (see a few posts back) showed higher snow amounts forecasted than the original 1-3 inch forecasts the NWS went with. Hence my caution in disregarding them. 


Whelp, it's snowing.


Storm Warning Update, 2:00 pm

What has happened is a band of heavy snow has developed running from DC through South Jersey. This has two effects: the direct effect of more snow falling faster, but also the heavier snowfall drags colder air down from higher up in the atmosphere and chills the ground layer, delaying the changeover and allowing more snow to accumulate.

This could create conditions for 3 - 5" of snow to accumulate before changeover, and almost guarantees a mucked up evening commute.

The good news is there will still be 8 - 10 hours of rain after changeover, so the fact that I didn't buy gas for the snowblower is irrelevant if my wife listens to me and leaves work soon. I doubt there will be significant snow on the ground in the morning.


WxNut2.0 said:
Short term model guidance is blitzing the region with liquid-equivalent precip by 8pm. 10-1 ratio snow totals are showing up around 8 inches. That said, 10-1 may be a little high this time of year, which is reflected in the dynamic snow total approximation snow forecasts. They have us at about 6. 

I think 10:1 is wildly optimistic.  That said, that band is south Jersey was not on any model.  They may get the forecast right, but not the reason for the precip falling as snow.


All right, all right, I'm a sore loser, I admit it.     smile 


max_weisenfeld said:


WxNut2.0 said:
Short term model guidance is blitzing the region with liquid-equivalent precip by 8pm. 10-1 ratio snow totals are showing up around 8 inches. That said, 10-1 may be a little high this time of year, which is reflected in the dynamic snow total approximation snow forecasts. They have us at about 6. 
I think 10:1 is wildly optimistic.  That said, that band is south Jersey was not on any model.  They may get the forecast right, but not the reason for the precip falling as snow.


All right, all right, I'm a sore loser, I admit it.     smile 

 Thats simply a function of model resolution. Picking up individual bands on global models is difficult. And FWIW, I fell into line with the 1-3 also. 


GoSlugs said:
Have we lost enough leaves for the power lines to be ok?

 Building on my own post here, people might want to jack their thermostats up.  There are a lot of leaves on the trees and if we get anything like what people are talking about, the weight of the snow on those leaves is going to cause branches to fall (or simply drape) on power lines.  

We had something like this back in 2011 (although earlier in the year) and, as a recall, over half a million people lost power, some of them for days.


GoSlugs said:


GoSlugs said:
Have we lost enough leaves for the power lines to be ok?
 Building on my own post here, people might want to jack their thermostats up.  There are a lot of leaves on the trees and if we get anything like what people are talking about, the weight of the snow on those leaves is going to cause branches to fall (or simply drape) on power lines.  
We had something like this back in 2011 (although earlier in the year) and, as a recall, over half a million people lost power, some of them for days.

 Was that the one referred to as Frankenstorm as it was around Halloween?



Snowtober, as I recall.


it’s coming down really hard and fast. So much for 1-3”. I think we already have close to 2 here in Westfield.


So, no shoveling, right? Rain will wash it away tonight?




The turnpike is a mess. Coming up from exit 6 the roads are barely plowed, I have seen 7 accidents, visibility sucks, and everyone is going about 30 mph. Leave work before dark!


A friend of mine lives on Tuscan. He texted that cars are sliding down the hill sideways.


what happened here? Why was this so underestimated? Yikes!


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