Bitter cold and breezy the rest of today and tonight

Time to start talking about the end of the week.

First, importantly, it is not panic time. The TV and online weather folk have been really deprived of storms so far this winter, so we can forgive them getting excited a bit early about the potential here, but I do not see a major storm in this pattern, at least not yet.

Second, the models are not in any sort of alignment on the weekend storm track or intensity yet, and they will not be for at least another 36 - 48 hours. Why? Because the energy for this system is still offshore in the Pacific Ocean, and will not be well sampled until it comes across the West Coast on Wednesday. That means the models are to a large part flying, if not blind, at least with very dark glasses on. The National Weather Service uses on the ground weather stations and weather balloons as well as satellites and radar to sample the air at different altitudes for wind speed, direction, humidity, and other data. Only the satellites can reach as far out into the Pacific as this system is at the moment.

Third, there are actually two weather events coming. The first we have a pretty good idea about. It looks like it should start as snow Thursday night and change over to rain early Friday. There is a good possibility it will be all rain by the morning commute on Friday, but we will keep an eye on it.

So, the weekend.

There is without question the possibility of enough snow this weekend to mess up your plans. There is an almost equal possibility that most of it will be rain. I would caution that if you are taking a trip, you may want to travel Friday or Monday just to be safe. But otherwise, watch this space and we will be back tomorrow with an update, although I will probably still be saying that it is too soon to really know anything.


My husband just bought a 50” snowblower attachment for the garden tractor.  Based on this alone I can guarantee that we will NOT have any measurable snow this weekend


My only real concern is if we'll be able to see the lunar eclipse Sunday night. Hopefully anything that blows through will be over before then.


Thanks, Max -- I rely on you for input like this!


First call on the Thursday night - Friday snowfall (Jan 17 - 18). The models are running colder this morning but still fairly dry, so we may well wake up to one or two inches of snow but not much more. there just is not enough water in this system or enough energy to fetch water from the gulf to generate much more snow.

NWS snow map below but expect adjustments over the next 24 hours if the rain/snow line shifts.

I will put my thoughts on the weekend in another post for clarity.


Still too early to make predictions, but let me tell you a little more about what we are seeing for this weekend (Jan 19 - 20).

A wet system develops over the Ohio Valley Friday and swings east and then up the coast. A large part of this one will be decided by the actual track the storm takes. Ironically, the closer it comes the less snow we could get, as the storm itself can push the cold air (yes, its our favorite polar vortex dropping in for a chill) north and away from us, leading to more rain and less snow.

As I said yesterday, we need more time for the models to sample the air mass as it comes off the Pacific over the next couple of days to get a better read, but the temperature gradient on this one could be very steep. That means a couple of things -- one being that relatively small changes in track could lead to big differences in snow depth. Another albeit less likely outcome could be a late icing if the system's departure lets that cold air flood in. Water on the ground could flash freeze before it has time to drain away, making driving difficult. While this is not a high probability outcome, it is showing on some of the model elements.

Just to make everyone feel better, here is an image from this morning's GFS model showing it all rain on Sunday morning.

I will update again tomorrow.


The European model is showing a lot more snow, right?


mfpark said:
The European model is showing a lot more snow, right?

 Not on the most recent run, no.  There are elements of most of the globals showing a lot of snow, but the ensembles right now are warm except for the UK and IBM's private Deep Thunder.


Timing on Thursday night thing? Mostly overnight or starting earlier?

max_weisenfeld said:


mfpark said:
The European model is showing a lot more snow, right?
 Not on the most recent run, no.  There are elements of most of the globals showing a lot of snow, but the ensembles right now are warm except for the UK and IBM's private Deep Thunder.

 Gotcha, I have not had a chance to look since 5 AM when the Euro was running colder.  As much as I love a good snowstorm once or twice a year, my back is not ready for one on Sunday.


I'm kind of pretty tired of rain. The ground is finally dry-ish.

Let it snow.


qrysdonnell said:
My only real concern is if we'll be able to see the lunar eclipse Sunday night. Hopefully anything that blows through will be over before then.

 No. We are pretty much stiffed on seeing this. I was looking forward to it.

Last year's super moon.


Hypothetically, Sunday night  is a good time for snow since I'm actually off on Monday. 


My Accu Weather app says 1-3 inches on Friday.  Thoughts?


wendyn said:
My Accu Weather app says 1-3 inches on Friday.  Thoughts?

 Yes.  Use a different app.


Lol ok which app is better but not overwhelming with information?


wendyn said:
Lol ok which app is better but not overwhelming with information?

 The MAX app, right here plus summit and???

The best crew around


I have been waiting for the 4:00pm update from the NWS, which takes the 12z (latest run) models into account.

At 4:13pm the NWS posted a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the weekend which really clarifies nothing: “There is the potential for a significant winter weather event this weekend, however there is still relatively low certainty regarding the details of precipitation types and potential impacts.

In addition minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible, mainly with the Sunday morning high tide cycle.”

The Thursday - Friday event is 1 – 2” of snow overnight followed by rain. May have a small impact on the commute but nothing major.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For the weekend, the models are in good agreement considering we are still a ways out with the sampling (this model run takes into account data collected before about 7:00 this morning because it takes 4 – 6 hours for the models to run). The energy is coming onshore now from the Pacific and we will have a much better idea in 24 hours.

This is expected to be a fairly significant system, with a lot of water in it. As I have been noting, what that means in terms of rain and snow will be highly influenced by the storm track, which we will have a better handle on tomorrow evening.

The current forecast, for what it’s worth, tracks the storm up the coast, pulling warm wet air with it and pushing colder arctic air north and west towards the Poconos and Catskills, and perhaps the Hudson Valley as well. As the warm air flows in snow will turn to rain (for the best guess on timing see below but expect changes). Note that there are elements of some models, like the Euro, that are tracking the storm further south and east, which would mean more snow for us.

Quoting the NWS now: “As the low moves off to the northeast on Sunday, cold air will rapidly rush into the region, changing any lingering precipitation back to snow Sunday afternoon. As temperatures rapidly drop back below freezing, any lingering standing water could quickly freeze, creating hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures will continue to plummet through the overnight hours, with lows Monday morning ranging from the single digits to lower teens. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills 5 to 10 degrees below zero.”

Longtime readers will marvel at the use of standard English by the NWS in the above quote. They have really been trying. They do not even use ALL CAPS anymore.

So, the short version: The weekend will be wet. There will be some snow, hopefully most of it washed away by rain during the day Sunday. There is a possibility of a flash freeze Sunday night as the precipitation ends.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Forecast:

Thursday night light snow possible from 7 – 10, then moderate snow likely until morning, tapering off after 8:00 am. Total snow 1 – 2” before possible rain for a bit. Then it will all melt.

Friday partly cloudy.

Saturday afternoon there’s a chance of light snow becoming likely moderate snow after 6:00pm. After midnight, possible changeover to rain as temps rise well above freezing. In this forecast, any accumulation is washed away by the rain.

Sunday starts with rain but temps are projected to drop in the afternoon and there may be a short period of sleet or freezing rain before ending with chance of a bit of light snow Sunday night.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Images below: Thursday snow map GFS for Sunday morning showing rain Euro (wide view and close up of NJ) showing freezing rain


max_weisenfeld said:
[...]
Forecast:
Thursday night light snow possible from 7 – 10, then moderate snow likely until morning....

For those who might sometimes skim (like myself), I'm pretty sure that means 7pm -10pm.... and *not* 7-10 inches of snow.   grin 


I'm predicting 10 inches over the weekend.

(on absolutely no basis at all)

You heard it here first.



sprout said:


max_weisenfeld said:
[...]
Forecast:
Thursday night light snow possible from 7 – 10, then moderate snow likely until morning....
For those who might sometimes skim (like myself), I'm pretty sure that means 7pm -10pm.... and *not* 7-10 inches of snow.   grin 

 You are correct.


Weather for tonight (Thursday Jan 17) is still snow overnight with little accumulation, 1 to 2 inches or less.  Snow starts late and continues into the morning commute which might make some secondary roads slick but should not significantly affect highways or trains.  Snow ends by midmorning Friday then melts.

The weekend continues to come into focus, and it is not pretty, with a growing chance of significant accumulation of snow, sleet, or possibly freezing rain.  Winds could be in the 20mph range with gusts in the 30s.  Still very dependent on the track the storm takes, but the latest model runs mostly have the center of the system a bit further offshore, allowing the cold air in but not enough to go all snow.  Still too unsettled to start talking about amounts or snowdepth as the mix of snow, sleet, and rain is unclear at this time.  Timing remains Saturday night through Sunday.  

There is a good consensus that Monday will be very cold, with temps in the single digits.


Thanks Max. Sounds like Saturday morning is a good time to make sure the snowblower starts up, and maybe the generator too.


drummerboy said:
I'm predicting 10 inches over the weekend.
(on absolutely no basis at all)

You heard it here first.


 Own stock in Shoprite do you?   grin


Forecast for tonight, Thursday 1/17 forecast remains on track for a light snow event late tonight ending near daybreak tomorrow with only 1 – 2 inches of snow or less. The NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement that reads (in part):

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 331 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

...Light Snow Expected Across The Tri-State Tonight...

A weak area of low pressure will move across the region tonight, resulting in a light snowfall across the tri-state area. Snow is expected to overspread the region around midnight and continue through the early morning hours, ending during the morning commute. On average, snowfall amounts will range between an inch and two inches.

Motorists should be prepared for the possibility of slippery roads and use caution while driving.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The weekend storm is still hard to forecast. There is energy coming from both the Ohio Valley and from Canada, and the interaction of the two is what will determine the nature of the precipitation. Phasing, if it happens, will happen just before the system passes us. This means that the exact nature and timing of the various forms of precipitation may not be known in advance.

What we do know is that this is almost certainly happening overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, and that it will be wet, with ample precipitation of one sort or another. It is unlikely to be all snow here.

Models are still shifting, with some of the guidance moving east and other members moving west, so it is still very difficult to try to forecast a track for the storm. And the track of this storm is a huge factor in whether we get snow, sleet, or rain.

Snow will most likely start late Saturday afternoon. Overnight, snow will probably changeover to sleet and freezing rain. We are hoping that it then changes to all rain by Sunday morning, but this is looking less likely and there is an increasing possibility that the storm stays sleet and/or freezing rain. During the day Sunday temperatures will likely drop sharply, and any remaining standing water will freeze. It is also possible that the sleet layer on top of the snow will freeze, making clearing walks and driveways difficult and any uncleared roads and walks treacherous.

The watch area map, snow map, and ice maps are posted below. Please note that the snow and ice maps are at best rough projections and final results will vary, with the possibility of significant differences not only between now and Sunday, but over short distances as well, with colder conditions, and more snow likely, west and north.

A winter storm watch is posted for the entire area from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 341 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult at any point during the storm. Rapidly falling temperatures Sunday afternoon into the evening could cause any standing water to quickly freeze over. Strong wind gusts Sunday afternoon into the night could bring down tree limbs and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.”

No photo description available.


A quick Friday morning (1/18) update, with a deeper dive after coffee:

As of 6:00 am, snow has ended across the area with only a dusting to 1/2 inch on the ground.

Although the models are coming into better agreement on the weekend storm, there are still a number of variables and key elements of track and therefore precipitation type remain unsettled.  What is fairly certain is that this will be a wet storm, with some or all of the precipitation in the form of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  Snow and sleet accumulation might be in the 4 -6 inch range.  There is the potential for 1/10 inch or more of ice on Sunday and any travel on Sunday could be affected severely.  

A winter storm watch remains in effect for Saturday and Sunday.  Timing remains Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with a possibility of continuing into Sunday afternoon.

The southern part of this two-part system is now onshore in the west, and I hope there will be a bit more clarity later today.


Winter storm watch continues in effect for tomorrow (Sat 1/19) through Sunday.

The models are coming into better alignment, but I would still couch all this in a lot of conditionals because the temperature changes we are going to experience will have significant effects on the final outcome. I do think there will be more clarity tonight -- the NWS seems to be holding off, perhaps waiting for one or two more cycles.

What is fairly certain is there will be heavy precipitation in the period from late Saturday night through Sunday morning -- an inch or more of water, and could be as much as two inches. This will start as snow, and we could see 3 - 6" (all numbers here should be taken with caution and I reserve the right to change them!) and/or sleet. Probably both, with it starting as snow and changing to sleet. All snow, although unlikely, would result in greater depth.

Sunday morning at some point the precipitation changes over to rain before pausing and perhaps ending. Also on Sunday, temperatures will drop, quickly and a lot. The order in which this all happens will make a big difference in the outcome. If the rain lasts for 2 - 3 hours, washes away most of the snow/sleet, and ends before the freeze, we will only have minor travel issues here. More likely, some snow/sleet will remain on the ground and there will be light rain during the freeze, followed by light snow. This will lead to the slush piles freezing for two solid days and being a big pain in our collective tushies. Less likely but still possible would be the rain continuing into the freeze in a bigger way, which would lead to icing and perhaps as much as 1/4" of ice on roads and trees. Worst case scenario.

This is a very local forecast. North and west of us (as near as Sussex County and northern Rockland County) will get substantially more snow, up to 18 - 24". South and east will see any snow washed away by rain, including Philly and Long Island. So use local weather forecasting for anything outside of our area as my forecast will not be valid.


A WINTER STORM WARNING has been extended to include all of MAPSO.

This replaces the Winter Storm Watch that was in effect.

Not a lot has actually changed about the forecast. The thump of snow at the beginning of the storm is becoming clearer. Once things get under way, they will get bad very quickly -- this storm will go from zero to sixty in less than an hour and possibly in as little as 20 minutes. Right now expect this to happen in the early evening, between say 7 - 9 pm.

The latest runs have the first changeover happening a bit earlier so less snow and more sleet but this will change again before we are done I fear.

The NWS is still relatively confident that the icing at the far end will not create significant accumulation but this is still not a sure thing. Do not plan on any travel on Sunday just to be on the safe side.

The snow map below shows 4 - 6" from the NWS but this total includes sleet and much of it may melt if the changeover to rain lasts more than an hour or two. The ice forecast remains at less than 1/10 of an inch.

~~~~~~~~~~~~ From the NWS: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 319 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.


There is possibly some black ice out there this morning.

The forecast continues to trend in our favor this morning (Sat 1/19).  Do not be misled, though, as this is still a serious and major storm, and storm track variations of just a few miles would have major implications.  That said, there is a general consensus in the models over the last 24 hours towards a warmer solution.  This means less snow accumulation and more rain, and a lower likelihood of significant ice.

That said, at this time (7:30 am) the Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the MAPSO area, although I would not be surprised if we are downgraded to a watch later this morning.  Areas east and south of us have already been downgraded overnight.

Ahead of the arrival of the storm this evening, warm moist air moving into the area could cause light snow this afternoon.

The storm will pick up suddenly in the early evening, between 6:00pm and 7:00 by the current forecast, with heavy snow changing over later in the evening to sleet or a wintery mix.  After midnight, this is likely to change over to all rain with a period of freezing rain in between.  

After midnight rain, heavy at times, should wash away all the snow.  Rain continues into the morning hours, possibly transitioning back to sleet and snow before ending midday.  Light snow may recur at the back end but this is looking less likely in recent runs.  There may be a coating of ice after the changeover.

Temps will drop sharply Sunday afternoon and remain cold, dropping well into the teens overnight, and we will not see above freezing until Wednesday.  This could lead to any standing water freezing, so be on the lookout for icy conditions Sunday - Tues night.

I will be offline until later this afternoon but at this point it is more of a look at the radar and look out the window forecast period, and anyway I am going to be working on the Mary Poppins set at the high school and a guy does have his priorities!
Updated snow and ice maps below.


latest HREF doesn’t love our snow chances. Normally I’d be very against posting a snow map, but being that this is an ensemble, I’m more comfortable. 


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