Winter forecast

WxNut2.0

A close friend of mine prepared a winter outlook that I figured I'd share. The author of this is an excellent seasonal forecaster and he did a really great job here: Winter forecast


max_weisenfeld

Second John and NY Metro Weather as a reliable and no-nonsense forecaster.


jamie

Conclusion: Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall. The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February. 

So - what is our average snowfall?   Would a weak to neutral el nino mean there's a less chance of heavy snowstorms?


WxNut2.0

jamie said:

Conclusion: Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall. The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February. 

So - what is our average snowfall?   Would a weak to neutral el nino mean there's a less chance of heavy snowstorms?

 NYC/suburbs gets about 36 inches of snow per year on average, so this is a fair expectation. That said, as a straight average gives equal weighting to winters where we got a series of large storms and those in which we got virtually no snow, its difficult to pinpoint how that 36 inches will get distributed throughout the season. This kind of works into the second point though, which is it's difficult to predict any individual event in a seasonal forecast. The slow-evolving, large scale pattern (impacted by El Nino) would certainly support a couple of big storms however.


yahooyahoo

Any discussion of El Nino must include this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhdDeWNvvTI


drummerboy

yahooyahoo said:

Any discussion of El Nino must include this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhdDeWNvvTI

 LOL




In order to add a comment – you must Join this community – Click here to do so.

Real Estate Listings

Sponsored Business

Find Business