DUMP TRUMP (previously 2020 candidates)
I don't have a preferred candidate yet, and I don't see how anyone else can at this point either. Only Biden has had any experience running a national campaign so far, and he sucked at it.
I have to see how these folks perform on the national stage first before deciding. At this point, no one knows who might emerge as a powerful campaigner, and who will fall flat on their face - regardless of the strength of their positions.
Having said that - I prefer Warren for her positions on economics and banking, and I think Harris is emerging as a fairly charismatic campaigner and she could go far. As long as the media can stop focusing on her condiment choices.
And I just find it ludicrous that anyone, in this day and age, can so firmly say that "x is the only one who can beat Trump." (to pick the only two time loser just makes it even funnier)
Four years ago, the proper question would have been "which Republican has a chance of beating Hillary?" And I guarantee that not one person on MOL predicted it would be Trump.
The facts are that Trump has had a disastrous Presidency, is historically unpopular and he won the last election by a mathematical fluke abetted by outside forces.
I don't think he stands a chance in 2020.
You heard it here first.
I don't agree that Trump doesn't stand a chance. Assuming that RBG stays on the bench until then, as in 2016, many Republicans who don't like Trump will vote for him so that he fills that seat in 2021. I suppose you can say the same for the Dem candidate, but polling last time showed that it was a bigger issue in 2016 for the Rep voters than for Dems. I agree he won't have the numbers he did in 2016, but if squeaks by at 271 electoral votes, that's all he needs.
apple44 said:
I don't agree that Trump doesn't stand a chance. Assuming that RBG stays on the bench until then, as in 2016, many Republicans who don't like Trump will vote for him so that he fills that seat in 2021. I suppose you can say the same for the Dem candidate, but polling last time showed that it was a bigger issue in 2016 for the Rep voters than for Dems. I agree he won't have the numbers he did in 2016, but if squeaks by at 271 electoral votes, that's all he needs.
if he doesn't have the numbers of 2016, he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell. He had 3 million less votes, remember?
After Trump's performance at the WH the other day and his so-called Emergency if anyone can't beat him then for all intents and purposes this Country, as I understand it, is dead and anyone who can should move somewhere else.
Does he actually have to start foaming at the mouth or jumping up and down for people to realize he's nuts?
apple44 said:
I'm talking about states/electoral votes.
Huh?
Trump won in the Electoral College by winning three States, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a handful of votes. I think it was a total of 77,000.
In Pennsylvania a number of House seats flipped from Republican to Democratic and in Wisconsin the Governorship flipped to the Dems.
Smedley said:
nan said: Most people are living at or near poverty. The Progressive attack on wage inequality will resonate. But, I'm still waiting to hear what exactly it is you like about Joe Biden. Why is a good candidate, specifically?
Whether you love Trump or hate Trump, you can't deny the broad economic metrics, most notably low unemployment with low inflation, that show the U.S. economy is strong. Of course, one can always find numbers to support a counter-argument, and I agree that wage inequality is an issue. But while a paycheck is tangible, wage inequality really isn't. For swing-state voters sitting at their proverbial kitchen table, how their families are doing economically is much more important than the fact that the CEO of their company makes 100x more than them or whatever the appropriate wage inequality metric would be.
So in my view it flies in the face of logic to believe that a progressive agenda will fly in the current environment.
Biden attributes: was a solid VP for eight years in a successful administration; strong statesman; deep experience in government; good character and regular-guy life story; respected on both sides of the aisle.
And again: He. Can. Beat. Trump.
Broad economic indicators mean nothing to individual families. Income inequality is out of hand in this country. Forty percent of households earn less than $50K per year. No matter where they live, a family would be struggling to get by on that, and they aren't going to be saving a lot in case of future unemployment or other unforeseen expense. This is why a lot of progressive ideas poll well. Nearly half of families are not sharing in the prosperity that GDP growth would indicate. They may not officially be in "poverty" (which is defined as >$25K per year for a family of 4), but they are only a few months of unemployment away from disaster.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/203183/percentage-distribution-of-household-income-in-the-us/
ml1: Asking, genuinely don’t know. At what rate do the people you describe vote?
I'm simply saying that if he doesn't win the same number of electoral votes as in 2016 (303), he still can slide by and win, but my main argument is I'm not definitively ruling him out. I agree his being reelected is unlikely, but it is (sadly) possible.
jimmurphy said:
ml1: Asking, genuinely don’t know. At what rate do the people you describe vote?
they vote at lower rates than the more affluent. But they still make up a significant part of the electorate.
Smedley said:
nan said:Biden attributes: was a solid VP for eight years in a successful administration; strong statesman; deep experience in government; good character and regular-guy life story; respected on both sides of the aisle.
And again: He. Can. Beat. Trump.
I guess if you are a big Obama fan you might want to vote for Biden. I guess he would appeal to that group, which are basically centrist Democrats. Otherwise you seem to be saying he has lots of experience and a great personality, which some people think is enough. I guess I know to many negatives about the Obama administration that could possibly be used against Biden to think he would last long in the campaign. So, I don't think he can beat Trump. In fact, I think he would be the least likely of all the candidates to beat Trump. But, we will see if he even runs and how it turns out. I think at this point more people probably agree with you. Trump does.
nan said:
Smedley said:I guess if you are a big Obama fan you might want to vote for Biden. I guess he would appeal to that group, which are basically centrist Democrats. Otherwise you seem to be saying he has lots of experience and a great personality, which some people think is enough. I guess I know to many negatives about the Obama administration that could possibly be used against Biden to think he would last long in the campaign. So, I don't think he can beat Trump. In fact, I think he would be the least likely of all the candidates to beat Trump. But, we will see if he even runs and how it turns out. I think at this point more people probably agree with you. Trump does.
nan said:Biden attributes: was a solid VP for eight years in a successful administration; strong statesman; deep experience in government; good character and regular-guy life story; respected on both sides of the aisle.
And again: He. Can. Beat. Trump.
Trump said something about Biden once to a guy.
Since when do we take his word on anything?
and just as we're discussing the misleading nature of topline economic indicators with regard to how regular folks in the U.S. are doing financially, I come across this:
In the midst of the never-ending Trump border wall sandstorm it was easy to miss the alarming report that we just set a new record for the number of Americans who have fallen at least three months behind in their car payments.
That’s right, in the midst of Trump’s so-called great economy, seven million Americans, a record number, have fallen into that 90-day abyss where quite literally the wheels have come off their household finances. This bad news came in an analysis of America’s deepening swamp of household debt done by the New York Federal Reserve
So, people can't afford their cars anymore and they are also going to Mexico for dental care:
Millions of Americans Flood Into Mexico for Health Care — the Human Caravan You Haven’t Heard About
https://truthout.org/articles/millions-of-americans-flood-into-mexico-for-health-care/
At just one checkpoint in Yuma, Arizona, up to 6,000 Americans cross the border every day and enter the bustling Mexican town of Los Algodones, seeking heath care.
The statistics are jarring. Approximately 74 million people in the US have no dental insurance, according to the National Association of Dental Plans. To put those numbers into perspective, that’s nearly a quarter of the population, or roughly twice the number that lacks health insurance overall.
But the problem is much larger than people lacking dental insurance. Dental insurance is not really insurance. It’s nothing like health or auto insurance, for example.
Most dental plans don’t cover much at all beyond regular check-ups, cleaning, X-rays and fillings. Beyond that, patients are expected to fork over much of the cost of large but common procedures like crowns, root canals and implants. Dental plans also generally pay a maximum of $1,500 annually, a number that’s hardly changed in 50 years. And $1,500 doesn’t go far when you consider the cost of major dental work. The cost of a single crown can be as much as $2,000 and the cost of an implant can run $5,000 a tooth. It’s not uncommon for seniors to need a set of four implants and several crowns, so you can see the costs can quickly get prohibitive.
One of the reasons dental care is so expensive in the United States is insurance. “The number one most complicated aspect of running a dental office, bar none, is dealing with dental insurance. You wouldn’t believe how long it takes to get through to a rep, make sure the patient does have benefits, calculate a copay,” dentist Dr. M told CBS News.
Another cost for US dentists is malpractice insurance, which is not required in Mexico. The insurance process is so frustrating, some dentists in the US don’t accept it. If you are paying entirely out-of-pocket, your dentist might give you a discount. Unfortunately, dentists who don’t accept insurance usually demand higher fees. So if you need costly dental care, you’re basically out of options.
Regarding Trump in 2020 - he will have a record to defend. A very poor record. In 2016 he was sort of a blank slate (at least if you were a moron. sorry.) But in 2020 he'll have to defend his failure to deliver on health care, on the wall, on taxes, etc.
Maybe I overestimate America, but I don't see how he has a chance in hell, even in the face of our craven and irresponsible media.
Then again, there are plenty of people who thought, and still think, that Hillary lied about the hot sauce, so who knows the depths of our idiocy.
You are delusional. Trump is clever about messaging and hyping up his base. They were motivated then, and they are more so now. How he won last time is the same way he can win this time. Get your head out of the sand and try, at least try, to pick a winner.
I think it is way too early to make statements about who will be a good general election candidate and who can, or cannot beat Trump. The whole purpose of primaries is to see what candidates are made off and how they behave under pressure, etc.
For the same reason it is futile to make statements about the specifics of Trumps 2020 re-election chances. However, historically speaking, first term Presidents have better than 50% odds of winning a second term.
drummerboy said:
Regarding Trump in 2020 - he will have a record to defend. A very poor record. In 2016 he was sort of a blank slate (at least if you were a moron. sorry.) But in 2020 he'll have to defend his failure to deliver on health care, on the wall, on taxes, etc.
Maybe I overestimate America, but I don't see how he has a chance in hell, even in the face of our craven and irresponsible media.
Trump still has his base firmly behind him, and his current low 40s approval ratings are in- line with where they’ve been throughout his presidency. These facts do not support “he has no chance”.
Smedley said:
drummerboy said:Trump still has his base firmly behind him, and his current low 40s approval ratings are in- line with where they’ve been throughout his presidency. These facts do not support “he has no chance”.
Regarding Trump in 2020 - he will have a record to defend. A very poor record. In 2016 he was sort of a blank slate (at least if you were a moron. sorry.) But in 2020 he'll have to defend his failure to deliver on health care, on the wall, on taxes, etc.
Maybe I overestimate America, but I don't see how he has a chance in hell, even in the face of our craven and irresponsible media.
His base is arguably smaller than the Dem base, so I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.
The election will be won on the margins, as usual. Your two data points are not persuasive.
I'm not saying the Dems don't have their work cut out for them. But he is not a strong candidate, by any stretch of the imagination. And he's clearly weaker than in 2016.
annielou said:
You are delusional. Trump is clever about messaging and hyping up his base. They were motivated then, and they are more so now. How he won last time is the same way he can win this time. Get your head out of the sand and try, at least try, to pick a winner.
It would be quite the freak of nature if he wins the same way. Kind of like lightning hitting the same person twice. It's possible I guess, but hardly predictable. And it's the opposite of likely.
I mean, you know how he won, right? Or maybe you don't.
Again, one similarity to 2016 will be that (assuming RBG is still on the bench), voters will be deciding on who they want to fill that seat in 2021. Many who disliked Trump voted for him in '16 because they didn't want a Dem nominating the person for that seat, and the same will happen in 2020. The open Scalia/Garland seat seemed to be a bigger motivator for Rep voters in '16 than it was for Dem voters and likely will help anyone with an R behind his name in 2020. I think Trump will be talking about Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and (indirectly) RBG a lot during the '20 run. I hope it doesn't work, but it gives any Rep nominee a fighting chance.
Aside from outside influencers pushing a social media blitz that favored a Trump victory in 2016, Trump won in specific precincts in pivotal states where Hillary wrongly believed she had a lock. There were, in addition, significant numbers of racists and misogynists-in-waiting, anxious to time travel to the America of their childhoods.The ugliness that emerged, and its attending trends, will be difficult to put back in the box by 2020
apple44 said:
Again, one similarity to 2016 will be that (assuming RBG is still on the bench), voters will be deciding on who they want to fill that seat in 2021. Many who disliked Trump voted for him in '16 because they didn't want a Dem nominating the person for that seat, and the same will happen in 2020. The open Scalia/Garland seat seemed to be a bigger motivator for Rep voters in '16 than it was for Dem voters and likely will help anyone with an R behind his name in 2020. I think Trump will be talking about Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and (indirectly) RBG a lot during the '20 run. I hope it doesn't work, but it gives any Rep nominee a fighting chance.
Do you think that a few controversial decisions with Gorsuch and Kavanaugh on the "other" side will motivate liberal voters? I'm hoping so - only solace I take from what I expect will be more horrendous opinions coming down the road.
Just vote for the Democrat regardless of what you think of the person...this is not the time to be arguing over the candidates. Trump has to be taken out of the white house. Enough with the bickering.
Jaytee said:
Just vote for the Democrat regardless of what you think of the person...this is not the time to be arguing over the candidates. Trump has to be taken out of the white house. Enough with the bickering.
Definitely. I would vote for any one of the thousands of candidates who ultimately secures the nomination.
Jaytee said:
Just vote for the Democrat regardless of what you think of the person...this is not the time to be arguing over the candidates. Trump has to be taken out of the white house. Enough with the bickering.
The whole point of the campaign and primary season is to see who will be the best candidate, a process that includes arguing and bickering. Whether on MOL or in debates and everywhere in between.
Your post would make sense a year and a half from now but it's nonsense now. This is exactly the time to be arguing over the candidates.
Smedley said:
Jaytee said:The whole point of the campaign and primary season is to see who will be the best candidate, a process that includes arguing and bickering. Whether on MOL or in debates and everywhere in between.
Just vote for the Democrat regardless of what you think of the person...this is not the time to be arguing over the candidates. Trump has to be taken out of the white house. Enough with the bickering.
Your post would make sense a year and a half from now but it's nonsense now. This is exactly the time to be arguing over the candidates.
Nonsense? If all of us would fall in line, instead of falling in love with the nominee, we might stand a better chance. Instead of giving ammo to the gropenfuhrer.
I'm really glad Bernie is running, and he can easily beat Trump. The DNC will do whatever they can to stop him though, cause they would rather lose than let him win.
Bernie Is Running, Thank God
You're funny Nan. Already laying the groundwork for losing. You seem to like very progressive candidates who may end up being unelectable. But that's okay, it seems, as long as you can blame the loss on the MSM or DNC or the status quo power du jour.
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Who is your preferred candidate at this time? Whoever it is, it will be very easy to criticize and poke holes in their case for the nomination, such is the state of the field. But let's hear it.