Is DeSantis worse than trump?
GoSlugs said:
ml1 said:
Pb2 was the person whose writing style prompted me to discover the word "popinjay."
Did pb2 go on to become Lord Pablum?
Heck, no. Pablum's in it for the lolz and to "own the libz". PB2 joined this site to find a homeschooling group and within a couple of weeks exploded into full Seven Mountains Christian Dominion Nationalism.
Steve said:
DaveSchmidt said:
Steve said:
Thus, you haven't proven anything.
He hasn’t claimed to. He has explained a POV he holds, and is asking for reasons — causal analyses presumably accepted — why his POV can’t possibly be valid, as some others appear to be arguing.
He claims that "common-sense" at least supports his theory and those of us who disagree bear the burden of proving him wrong. From that, I infer that he claims to have - at a minimum - demonstrated a presumption of correctness if not outright proof in his belief.
If you disagree, please explain why my starting point of "we are more (less) likely to elect members of the other party, the less (more) we approve of the president" is not a common-sense premise.
6th graf - stated explicitly. https://news.columbia.edu/news/what-issues-will-sway-voters-election-day
Expired equine aside, there has been no reasonable rationale offered for this apparently near-consensus opinion on here. Aside from one quickly withdrawn explanation about crossover voters being smart, there's just been dancing around it and avoiding it.
mrincredible said:
drummerboy said:
Have we decided whether DeSantis is worse than Trump?
no
Yes. 
Smedley said:
Expired equine aside, there has been no reasonable rationale offered for this apparently near-consensus opinion on here. Aside from one quickly withdrawn explanation about crossover voters being smart, there's just been dancing around it and avoiding it.
You’ve repeatedly explained your point as clearly as you’re able, and none of the many replies have given you reason to reconsider it. What else are you looking to get out of the discussion? More reassurance that you’re a put-upon voice in the wilderness?
Can somebody review the salient points of this debate for me. So far, my understanding is that an unpopular President does not absolutely determine down ballet choices but, all other things being equal, a political party would always benefit from a President from that party who is wildly popular.
Well being as there's a new person in the discussion, I'm interested in whether there's a fresh perspective, ie an actual answer to an unanswered question.
DaveSchmidt said:
You’ve repeatedly explained your point as clearly as you’re able, and none of the many replies have given you reason to reconsider it. What else are you looking to get out of the discussion? More reassurance that you’re a put-upon voice in the wilderness?
I think everyone is in agreement that a president's approval rating value is correlated with electoral outcome
tjohn said:
Can somebody review the salient points of this debate for me. So far, my understanding is that an unpopular President does not absolutely determine down ballet choices but, all other things being equal, a political party would always benefit from a President from that party who is wildly popular.
I think that's a fair assessment. The near-consensus on here though is that a prez approval rating decidedly and definitively has zero causation, with regard to the midterms or any other matter of the presidency.
Smedley said:
tjohn said:
Can somebody review the salient points of this debate for me. So far, my understanding is that an unpopular President does not absolutely determine down ballet choices but, all other things being equal, a political party would always benefit from a President from that party who is wildly popular.
I think that's a fair assessment. The near-consensus on here though is that a prez approval rating decidedly and definitively has zero causation, with regard to the midterms or any other matter of the presidency.
So, why is the debate ongoing?
tjohn said:
So, why is the debate ongoing?
Because nobody has driven a stake through its heart.
tjohn said:
Smedley said:
tjohn said:
Can somebody review the salient points of this debate for me. So far, my understanding is that an unpopular President does not absolutely determine down ballet choices but, all other things being equal, a political party would always benefit from a President from that party who is wildly popular.
I think that's a fair assessment. The near-consensus on here though is that a prez approval rating decidedly and definitively has zero causation, with regard to the midterms or any other matter of the presidency.
So, why is the debate ongoing?
It was dead and seemingly buried until another poster dredged it up. To the extent people still want to debate it, I'll debate it. I have little interest in the Russia threads, and it's still a bit early to get into 2024 debates.
Based on the current polls that I see, and the incredibly crazy way that the Republican nomination is decided, I anticipate Donald Trump will be the 2024 nominee. The only thing that I think will prevent that is a very unlikely act of Congress to disqualify him from holding public office. They will never get 2/3 of the Senate to vote to prevent him from being president again.
mrincredible said:
Based on the current polls that I see, and the incredibly crazy way that the Republican nomination is decided, I anticipate Donald Trump will be the 2024 nominee. The only thing that I think will prevent that is a very unlikely act of Congress to disqualify him from holding public office. They will never get 2/3 of the Senate to vote to prevent him from being president again.
and I had my heart set on him landing in jail before the primaries.
Morganna said:
and I had my heart set on him landing in jail before the primaries.
I’d still give him a 50% chance of getting nominated. His most devoted followers would be undeterred.
On that note, even if he’s indicted before the primaries, do you think there would be any trials underway? Or will his lawyers manage to delay and delay and delay stuff? It would be interesting if he was charged with something and released pending trial. Would his movements be limited?
I think the chance of jail time for him is low, though it pains me to say it. We are coming up on the two year anniversary of his biggest crimes: Georgia election interference, January 6 incitement and dereliction of duty, and theft of government documents. We see that the wheels of justice are grinding very slowly and deliberately here. Indictments, trials and convictions will be a long time coming.
So my guess again is he’s the nominee. Seems most likely. I don’t think DeSantis has the national appeal to overcome 45s MAGA Millions.
DeSantis has a lot more support than people think. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say if DeSantis jumps into the primaries he gets the nomination. Trumpenstein is done.
Jaytee said:
DeSantis has a lot more support than people think. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say if DeSantis jumps into the primaries he gets the nomination. Trumpenstein is done.
I won’t argue with your first two sentences because I’m not a political soothsayer but any means. I could very well underestimate the support for DeSantis. And maybe in a head-to-head matchup then yes Florida governor beats Florida man. But I think the Republican electorate will be diluted over multiple candidates and a devoted plurality will git ‘er done.
I disagree with your final sentence. He’s not done. He has loyal fans and millions of dollars in his PAC. Even if the GOP establishment is done with him, he’s still a force to be reckoned with.
What I don’t see is MAGA faithful lining up behind DeSantis. Trump would never concede if he loses the nomination, so he would never try to rally his cult around anyone but himself.
Here’s a new poll from USA Today showing preference for DeSantis in a head-to-head match-up with Trump.
While this looks bad for the Orange P——y Grabber, I think it neglects the fact that the 33% of voters who prefer Trump is a rock-hard voting bloc. As soon as a few other GOP candidates throw in their hats, the DeSantis number will drop but the 33% for Trump will still be there. Then the primaries will reveal who gets the plurality.
mrincredible said:
Here’s a new poll from USA Today showing preference for DeSantis in a head-to-head match-up with Trump.
While this looks bad for the Orange P——y Grabber, I think it neglects the fact that the 33% of voters who prefer Trump is a rock-hard voting bloc. As soon as a few other GOP candidates throw in their hats, the DeSantis number will drop but the 33% for Trump will still be there. Then the primaries will reveal who gets the plurality.
that's pretty much what happened in '16.
ml1 said:
that's pretty much what happened in '16.
It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself. I keep seeing early reporting on the 2024 election that is based on “conventional wisdom”. The last 7 years have been anything but conventional.
What may change from 2016 is Trump’s level of enthusiasm and engagement. He’s been holed up in Florida for months and hasn’t been out churning up his supporters at rallies which is his best play. If he just declared his candidacy to try to shield himself from prosecution and keep the fundraising dollars flowing, he’s not likely to repeat his 2016 success.
mrincredible said:
Morganna said:
and I had my heart set on him landing in jail before the primaries.
I’d still give him a 50% chance of getting nominated. His most devoted followers would be undeterred.
On that note, even if he’s indicted before the primaries, do you think there would be any trials underway? Or will his lawyers manage to delay and delay and delay stuff? It would be interesting if he was charged with something and released pending trial. Would his movements be limited?
I think the chance of jail time for him is low, though it pains me to say it. We are coming up on the two year anniversary of his biggest crimes: Georgia election interference, January 6 incitement and dereliction of duty, and theft of government documents. We see that the wheels of justice are grinding very slowly and deliberately here. Indictments, trials and convictions will be a long time coming.
So my guess again is he’s the nominee. Seems most likely. I don’t think DeSantis has the national appeal to overcome 45s MAGA Millions.
Trump will never go to jail. He will die before that happens.
yahooyahoo said:
Trump will never go to jail. He will die before that happens.
Like the Blondie song says, “One way or another”
Not to thread drift too much but I guarantee if he dies while investigations are ongoing there will be a substantial “Trump is alive and outsmarted Garland” conspiracy theory community. They’ll insist that he escaped the witch hunt and is living somewhere in luxury and secretly I communication with MAGA leaders. Or leading the fight against cannibal pedophile Democrats from a secure location.
mrincredible said:
Like the Blondie song says, “One way or another”
Not to thread drift too much but I guarantee if he dies while investigations are ongoing there will be a substantial “Trump is alive and outsmarted Garland” conspiracy theory community. They’ll insist that he escaped the witch hunt and is living somewhere in luxury and secretly I communication with MAGA leaders. Or leading the fight against cannibal pedophile Democrats from a secure location.
That's fine. Can't be elected when you're busy being secretly undead.
Setting up a grand jury to investigate the covid19 vaccine…. He’s outflanking trumpenstein already.
Jaytee said:
Setting up a grand jury to investigate the covid19 vaccine…. He’s outflanking trumpenstein already.
the key plank of DeSantis's platform will apparently be "I'm the guy who fought against mitigating the spread of COVID.
It's astounding that the news coverage seems to be allowing him to do that, even though FL's per capita COVID death rate was around the same as NY and NJ, despite having big advantages over those two states. NY and NJ got hit hard by deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. FL and other states could have learned from that and required masks and social distancing and keeping businesses closed longer. But instead DeSantis thought it was good politics to let people die after it was well-understood how to keep infections from spiking.
On the right it seems like willfully letting a lot of old people die is a feature and not a bug.
Deaths by day in FL and NJ. DeSantis's policies led to a lot of deaths long after it was known how to avoid them.
ml1 said:
Deaths by day in FL and NJ. DeSantis's policies led to a lot of deaths long after it was known how to avoid them.
The scales are different in the two graphs as well. The March 2022 spike is twice as high in Florida but it doesn’t look that different.
He really is going all in on the vaccine skeptic COVID denial angle isn’t he?
Yeah I don't know man, the left will never accept this but I'm afraid DeSantis has a legit argument that Florida's COVID policies turned out to be, net-net, as good if not better than other states.
Because the pandemic was so much deadlier for older people, you have to look at age-adjusted data. And age-adjusted data shows contrary to FL having big advantages over NJ and NY, it was the other way around. Florida is #2 in percentage of population 65+.
In age-adjusted COVID deaths, Florida was #31 among states, well below NY and NJ.
https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-adjusted-covid-deaths/
And as that blog states: "In the end, some states that adopted dramatically divergent policies had comparable outcomes (Florida and California, for example)."
So what was better: lockdowns, closures and strict mask mandates every which way for an eternity, or a generally easy, hands-off policy, if both led to comparable outcomes?
I'm not saying DeSantis is any genius or knows any more about infectious diseases than I do. He's not, and he probably doesn't. Maybe he just got lucky that covid wasn't a disaster for Florida. But IMO the left is pushing excrement uphill in denying that Florida ended up doing okay.
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Did pb2 go on to become Lord Pablum?