It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!

mfpark said:
This sets the market for Harper, as if there were any doubt.  Probably be a 10 year with a 5 year out deal at $301 million.  He will sign that deal with the Yankees, Phillies, or Senators, er, Nationals.

Ten years plus one day. Just because.

ml1 said:
Keith Law's 2019 ranking of all 30 MLB farm systems

The Padres are poised to sit at or near the top of these rankings for quite some time, even though they'll likely lose at least three top-100 prospects to graduations this year (Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Luis Urias and maybe Logan Allen), with the 2016 international class still just barely getting to full-season ball, another solid draft class last year and the sixth overall pick this year. The system remains deep in shortstops and power arms...

 Yes, I have seen this and it may give Padres fans some hope.  But it takes a lot more than prospects to form a consistent winning club these days.  I am not convinced that the Padres have the corporate management to make it happen.  But we shall see.  

With Hosmer and Machado at the corners they have a solid core.  Tatis, Jr has shown great power in the minors, but he is trying to make the jump from AA to the MLB and that is a huge leap.  His fielding is only average in the minors and I wonder if he is more of a third baseman in the MLB--oops, that is where Machado is going to play.  Maybe they can swap the two on the field, as Machado prefers shortstop, or so I hear.

Luis Urias at second base is another guy with potential.  He has better discipline and plate coverage than Tatis, Jr but also less power.

Beyond this the Padres are thin.  Their catching platoon is weak; Renfroe and Reyes are okay at the corner outfield positions but nothing to get excited about; and their starters are all number fives on most teams.  Not sure if the combined Machado and Hosmer contracts will allow them to buy more pitching in the next few years.

mfpark said:

ml1 said:
Keith Law's 2019 ranking of all 30 MLB farm systems

The Padres are poised to sit at or near the top of these rankings for quite some time, even though they'll likely lose at least three top-100 prospects to graduations this year (Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Luis Urias and maybe Logan Allen), with the 2016 international class still just barely getting to full-season ball, another solid draft class last year and the sixth overall pick this year. The system remains deep in shortstops and power arms...

 Yes, I have seen this and it may give Padres fans some hope.  But it takes a lot more than prospects to form a consistent winning club these days.  

See Astros, Houston.

OK. Put me down in the Keuchel+Gonzalez (and more payroll flexibility in, say, December 2020) over Harper camp for the Phillies.

DaveSchmidt said:
OK. Put me down in the Keuchel+Gonzalez (and more payroll flexibility in, say, December 2020) over Harper camp for the Phillies.

 absolutely 

OK. How about Keuchel+Kimbrel?

(Gonzalez to the Twins.)

Well, there is a second team supposedly in the bidding for Harper, but the Phillies's Owner sure set up camp in Las Vegas this week.  I think you are going to have a 10 year $365MM player soon.  I think the "second team" is a bluff by the always manipulative Boras.  I am not saying that there is not a second team somehow involved--but I would not put it past Boras to talk a Phillies' rival into pushing the Phillies over the edge on this deal.

Will Middleton live up to his earlier boast of breaking the bank this offseason beyond just Harper and/or Machado?  We shall see...…..

Win-win. If the Phillies sign Harper, it’s like 25,000 new jobs in Long Island City. If the Phils don’t, it’s like telling someone who thinks he holds all the cards that you don’t have to play that game.

Well the world’s gonna end in 12 years anyway, so I say a sign him to a fifteen year deal.

Spoken like a true Yankees fan.

Yanks just extended Aaron Hicks on a 7 year, $70MM contract.  My first reaction was, huh?  

On a team so loaded with superstars it is easy for me (at least) to overlook his solid performance.  His OPS actually compares favorably with Betts, Altuve, Judge, and Trout.  Based on WAR he is the sixth best center fielder, and 12th best outfielder overall.  

He has decent speed and reasonable plate discipline, walking 90 times and striking out 111 times last year.  He hits better from the left side than the right side, but shows power at both. 

Even with this I am a tad surprised at a 7 year deal.  His batting average is fair to mediocre over his career, and he has not seemed like a guy you build a club around.  I wonder what this extension says to Didi and Betances?

he can throw 105 MPH 

https://www.mlb.com/video/statcast-hicks-1055-mph-throw/c-606604783

ml1 said:
he can throw 105 MPH 
https://www.mlb.com/video/statcast-hicks-1055-mph-throw/c-606604783

 OMG.  And then there is that!

4.7 WAR last year.  Think that means he was about 5x better than Ellsbury.

I like to see guys like him get taken care of.

interesting to see people besides me citing WAR in evaluating a player

Robert_Casotto said:
4.7 WAR last year.  Think that means he was about 5x better than Ellsbury.

Heyyyy. Wait a minute. Is that how WAR works?

DaveSchmidt said:

Robert_Casotto said:
4.7 WAR last year.  Think that means he was about 5x better than Ellsbury.

Heyyyy. Wait a minute. Is that how WAR works?

 I believe no amount of replacement level guys would add up to one 5 WAR guy. 

I wonder if, as the father of a college sophomore, I’ll have a future grandchild who’s a Bryce Harper fan.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26105394/sources-phillies-finalizing-deal-harper

DaveSchmidt said:
I wonder if, as the father of a college sophomore, I’ll have a future grandchild who’s a Bryce Harper fan.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26105394/sources-phillies-finalizing-deal-harper

 Or a future grandchild named Bryce. Or Harper.

Michael Trout Schmidt has a nice ring.

Harper’s not Yankees material.

$330 million over 13 years for Harper. No opt out.

My guess is that Philly will regret that contract in about 6 years.

DaveSchmidt said:
Michael Trout Schmidt has a nice ring.

 His friends will call him lefty.

yahooyahoo said:
$330 million over 13 years for Harper. No opt out.
My guess is that Philly will regret that contract in about 6 years.

 So, do you think someone will remember this post and respond to it in 2024? 

Maybe I'll put it in my Google calendar.

I wonder if anyone has compiled a list of really long term Sports contracts and if any of them worked out the way it was intended. It seems like the 10-year contract is a fairly new thing but maybe I'm wrong. Has any team sign anyone to like a 7, 8, 9 or 10 year contract and been happy with the result for the entire length of the contract?

Bonilla situation doesn't count. I'm talking about being signed to play for a long period of time.

NYT did an analysis on this topic earlier this week. It's probably a good deal for 10 years at Harper's age. Nobody really has a precedent for a 13 year deal. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/20/sports/baseball/free-agent-big-contracts.html

Amazing stat, courtesy of ESPN:

Over the past four years he has hit .283, a strong batting average, but he has never hit within 30 points of .283, batting .330, then .243, then .319, then .249.

Bryce Harper Asks If Phillies Willing to Move Another City
"I’m really trying to put myself in the best position and it feels like the Phillies have all the pieces in place, except for the city."

Started checking out which Omaha radio station to stream as soon as my son sent me that article.