WINTER STORM WARNING Tuesday Midnight - Thursday morning 3/20 - 3/22

Kid flew to Florida for the day. On her way now and due back at EWR at 10 pm. Hope she brought some PJs JIC

tjohn said:

mammabear said:

ugh I’m in Miami and trying to get home. I’m supposed to land at 6pm this evening. :/

Tonight should be fine other than crowding due to people trying to change Wednesday flights, a good number of which will probably be cancelled.

I am really really hoping that morning flights do in fact get out tomorrow said the mom booked to visit her son and niece out in LaLa land for a few days. Fingers crossed all for safe but non-cancelled flights for all who need them. 

And now back to the regularly scheduled important programming directed by Max.

wendy said:

I am really really hoping that morning flights do in fact get out tomorrow said the mom booked to visit her son and niece out in LaLa land for a few days. Fingers crossed all for safe but non-cancelled flights for all who need them. 

And now back to the regularly scheduled important programming directed by Max.

Can you try to get out today/tonight? 

probably worth noting that many ensemble models have us at about 7 inches total. I still think a foot is likely though.

I cannot believe Upton & Mt Holly posted that 12 - 18 map.  Even the weenies were scratching their heads this morning.

I agree with WxNut that we are looking at 8 - 12" more likely.

But 8 - 12" heavy, wet inches so still a serious storm.

GRRRR! Hating this! Wondering if the schools will close

I've read the NWS forecast discussion, and I know that the models have aligned more over the past 12 hours or so, so I'm pretty sure I know what the answer to this question is. But is there any chance that this storm could be a bust?

max_weisenfeld said:

I cannot believe Upton & Mt Holly posted that 12 - 18 map.  Even the weenies were scratching their heads this morning.

I agree with WxNut that we are looking at 8 - 12" more likely.

But 8 - 12" heavy, wet inches so still a serious storm.

I’m not all that surprised tbh. When two adjacent NWS offices have similar snowmaps, it says something about the level of confidence. A lot of it is pattern recognition, as trusting models blindly is unwise. The model snowmaps are generated based upon significant assumption of snow to liquid ratios, which can kinda be thrown out the door in many cases. The raw model QPF forecasts are impressive — 1.5+ inches of liquid equivalent in some cases — so I get the erring on the side of the higher totals. Something else that differentiates this event from the past two is the airmass in place right now. In the last two cases it was much warmer leading up to the snow than it is today. Could make a big difference. I do think they’re a little high, but I understand why the did it. 

mauras said:

I've read the NWS forecast discussion, and I know that the models have aligned more over the past 12 hours or so, so I'm pretty sure I know what the answer to this question is. But is there any chance that this storm could be a bust?

Always that chance, but it’s unlikely. Especially in this case I’d say. 

WxNut2.0 said:

mauras said:

I've read the NWS forecast discussion, and I know that the models have aligned more over the past 12 hours or so, so I'm pretty sure I know what the answer to this question is. But is there any chance that this storm could be a bust?

Always that chance, but it’s unlikely. Especially in this case I’d say. 

Thanks. That's what I figured. Sigh.

mauras said:

WxNut2.0 said:

mauras said:

I've read the NWS forecast discussion, and I know that the models have aligned more over the past 12 hours or so, so I'm pretty sure I know what the answer to this question is. But is there any chance that this storm could be a bust?

Always that chance, but it’s unlikely. Especially in this case I’d say. 

Thanks. That's what I figured. Sigh.

Two years ago we were certain this area would see record breaking snowfall, and we got 8 inches. So anything’s possible. But something that seems a little different about this storm is the lack of dependence upon smaller-scale features. Kinda looks like everyone’s gonna get something. So I’d be surprised if we didn’t.

Upton and Mt Holly are certainly not backing down on their estimated snow totals.

WxNut and Max,  would you mind very much opining about when tomorrow it's going to start looking bad enough for the majority of the flight cancellations. Yesterday NWS was showing starting to get heavy after noon and just for my own sake was wondering if that was still the prediction. Thanks!

this is a lot of poopoocaca

luckily all of the dead neglected branches have come down already....

Enough already

drummerboy said:

luckily all of the dead neglected branches have come down already....

Yes now the ones that cracked and just barely survived the last storm will come down.

So which school day is more likely to be closed, Wed or Thur?

All after school activities cancelled and late start on Thursday.  that's my guess

We have never gone away for Spring Break before. This year, I made reservations (e.g., the cheaper hotel rates you can't undo) for a little family trip. 

So, my prediction is snow days from Weds-Friday, so that Spring Break ends up turning back into school days.

mrincredible said:

drummerboy said:

luckily all of the dead neglected branches have come down already....

Yes now the ones that cracked and just barely survived the last storm will come down.

And all the broken branches that are still up in our tall cedars are going to come tumbling down taking out even more branches.  I’ve been begging for help from tree company to no avail. 

New European model has the precipitation gradient right through Essex county. So that’s fun. 

WxNut2.0 said:

New European model has the precipitation gradient right through Essex county. So that’s fun. 

Meaning?

mfpark said:

WxNut2.0 said:

New European model has the precipitation gradient right through Essex county. So that’s fun. 

Meaning?

We get the brunt...

mfpark said:

WxNut2.0 said:

New European model has the precipitation gradient right through Essex county. So that’s fun. 

Meaning?

mfpark said:

WxNut2.0 said:

New European model has the precipitation gradient right through Essex county. So that’s fun. 

Meaning?

Just meaning it complicates predictability. The gradient shifting 20 miles north or south could make the difference between a lot of snow and not nearly as much. It’s one model though.

Virga on the Radar right now.  How soon before it fills in?

Will we see sleet or snow before midnight?

Also reports of snow falling just south of 287 in the Edison area.

Any precipitation here from this first pass should not accumulate as much as the second pass after midnight.  However, care should be taken during the evening commute as roads could be slick.

max_weisenfeld said:

Also reports of snow falling just south of 287 in the Edison area.

Any precipitation here from this first pass should not accumulate as much as the second pass after midnight.  However, care should be taken during the evening commute as roads could be slick.

The aviation observations show the precip line roughly across NJ at the "waist" across Trenton (TTN) and points south.    Lots of light rain showers, some light freezing rain and ice pellets.   Light snow slightly west at northeast Philly and other reporting stations.   Current surface dewpoint contour plot shows the line very nicely, with everything north of that line much drier.      

You mean on Wednesday, yes? 

max_weisenfeld said:

Also reports of snow falling just south of 287 in the Edison area.

Any precipitation here from this first pass should not accumulate as much as the second pass after midnight.  However, care should be taken during the evening commute as roads could be slick.