Winter Storm WARNING Sunday Night Mar 3 (was: Snow, Sleet, and Rain this Weekend Likely Mar 1 - 4)
The forecast for tomorrow night, Sunday 3/3, remains complex and hard to predict. The models disagree just enough on the track of the low pressure center(s) to cause a wide range of possible results depending on how you blend the guidance. The Euro is closest to shore, which would yield a warmer, rainier solution. It is also the wetest. The NWS is currently discounting the Euro. The GFS potentially keeps the event all snow. The NAM does its own thing, but was a bit drier this last run than the GFS and Euro. That could be good news. But another short-term model, the RGEM, is wet and cold.
Combining all the models, we get the 3 – 7” that is on the NWS headline forecast. I think at this moment anyone who is trying to sell you a more accurate forecast is not to be trusted.
Best guess: precipitation starts as rain Sunday late afternoon, changing over to snow as the precipitation intensifies Sunday evening and overnight Sunday-Monday. The harder the precipitation falls, the faster it will cool the air and the lighter and loftier and deeper the snow will be. Precipitation ends early Monday morning, which means that any significant snowfall will affect the commute and the schools.
I’ll post the snow map below. This is not the model-generated map I railed about a moment ago, but the NWS forecast map that is built up from what the forecasters are seeing on the models and builds up from the grids.
Winter Storm Warning
The NWS has upgraded the winter storm watch to a Warning for the entire area.
The models have come into a better consensus on the track of the storm, with the Euro shifting south east in the last run and becoming colder. There is still some disagreement about the amount of water in the storm and as always the models cannot show where local bands of intense snow will form, only that they are likely to do so.
Precipitation starts as light rain this afternoon. After sunset, precipitation should intensify, temps will drop and changeover to snow. Then snow overnight, could be heavy at times, ending in the early morning, just before or at the commute time.
Because there remain questions of where and when the rain snow line will set up and and if and where banding will occur, I am comfortable with the NWS rather wide forecast of 4 - 8" from the headline forecast, but be aware the probabilistic forecast (that's the one that generates the snow maps I post) is on the snowier side at 6 - 8".
From the NWS:
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
337 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Moderate snow, heavy at times, expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 8 inches expected.
* WHERE...Northeastern New Jersey, southern Connecticut and
portions of southeastern New York.
* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
hazardous conditions could impact those traveling Sunday night,
and the Monday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.
Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
Max,
How comfortable are you with the ending time?
We have a friend, who is scheduled for surgery late Monday morning. Without allowing for weather issues, she is supposed to leave her house in Chatham at 10 AM (either by car service, or by my driving her).
Its starting to snow here in SO. I didn't see any rain on the front end.
Okay ... need a consensus.
I am thinking of going out with the snowblower tonight once we get a few inches. How late is too late for that? 9?
I just got the call regarding a delayed opening but it is hard for me to imagine, given their track record this year, that the schools won't close for the day. I just wish they could make the call before I go to bed tonight. There's nothing like a 5:45am closure call on a day when I could be sleeping in because of the delayed opening.
-Kranky Klinker
mrincredible said:
Okay ... need a consensus.
I am thinking of going out with the snowblower tonight once we get a few inches. How late is too late for that? 9?
Nothing accumulating here yet. Temperature by my house is still 36 degrees. Don't know how much accumulation we will have by 9 pm.
yeah, no rain in my neck of the woods (or Montclair, for that matter). Just that no-nonsense fine snow that keeps on getting heavier.
Could be a mess tomorrow.
The forecast is still on track -- that is to say there are still uncertainties and a range of 4 - 8" is still the best estimate. I won't bore you with the details, you have heard me talk about rain/snow lines and storm tracks shifting north, east or south all winter, so I figure you know the drill. Stay warm and stay safe.
If you are feeling particularly masochistic, here is the detailed forecast discussion from the NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
This updates every two hours or so, the current version is timestamped 7:27 pm and is rated better than ambien for inducing unconsciousness.
mrincredible said:
Okay ... need a consensus.
I am thinking of going out with the snowblower tonight once we get a few inches. How late is too late for that? 9?
I think you can do it up until 9 here in SO. My neighbor has a toddler so I don't do it after 7.
Edit:
Check that. Just looked at the code on line and snow blowers appear to be exempt. I still say 9 is a good rule of thumb depending on your neighbor situation.
I'm hunkering down. I'll just attack it all tomorrow.
My money is on the 2 hour delay standing. My daughter disagrees.
mrincredible said:
I'm hunkering down. I'll just attack it all tomorrow.
My money is on the 2 hour delay standing. My daughter disagrees.
My kids school is delayed too. Unfortunately history tells me it will close.
mrincredible said:
I'm hunkering down. I'll just attack it all tomorrow.
My money is on the 2 hour delay standing. My daughter disagrees.
Guarantee that we cancel school.
NYC doesn’t close schools. Like ever. Local Schools will be closed tomorrow. They’ve done delayed openings for storms that ended overnight with no accumulation. This is way more than that.
conandrob240 said:
NYC doesn’t close schools. Like ever. Local Schools will be closed tomorrow. They’ve done delayed openings for storms that ended overnight with no accumulation. This is way more than that.
https://abc7ny.com/weather/nyc-public-schools-closed-monday-due-to-winter-storm/5165335/
yes, I understand. That was my point. If NYC has closed schools, everyone should (will) probably follow suit. They don’t close lightly.
I'm not sure. If the storm really tails off by 4 a.m. there's a chance the two hour delay will suffice for getting roads and sidewalks clear.
The school district fears the Wrath of Klinker. Mark my words.
(Email sent 3/3 6:06pm from Maplewood Township)
Recycling is cancelled for tomorrow. It is being postponed until the following Monday.
Jitneys will run as scheduled.
Schools will have a delayed opening tomorrow.
SCHOOL has been cancelled. But I’m sure you all know that by the 5am wake up call
I *knew* the 5am call was coming. Why didn't I turn off the phone ringers? Why??? Why???
*sigh* *grumble grumble*
bub said:
looks pretty minor through my window. Maybe 2 or 3 inches?
Union reported 6.3 inches according to CBS TV. We should be something similar.
dano said:
SCHOOL has been cancelled. But I’m sure you all know that by the 5am wake up call
I'm claiming a religious exemption and dropping my kid off anyway
Sponsored Business
Promote your business here - Businesses get highlighted throughout the site and you can add a deal.
Eric you are right, but I think re the amount of snow in the shovel and the density of wet snow vs cold, dry snow, they are right above, too. The two things are different ways of explaining the same phenomenon.
10:1 is the standard calculation for predicting snow from QPF and needs to be modified to take into account the conditions, especially the middle and ground layer temperatures. The models do not do this when generating snow maps, which is why you should never just look at the snow map as it comes off the NOAA or ECM site.