Bitter cold and breezy the rest of today and tonight
Saturday afternoon update.
The consensus among the models continue to grow on the track of the storm, so only slight changes to the forecast. Winter Storm Warning remains in effect.
Most likely scenario continues to be a possibility of light snow this afternoon, although things might develop a couple of hours later than previously thought, with the main event coming between 8 and 9 this evening. Then snow changing over to sleet and snow then rain by morning. Any accumulation should wash away. All rain by morning, although a period of freezing rain may exist in the wee hours.
The back end on Sunday afternoon still uncertain, with a race between the end of precipitation and the substantial drop in temperature leaving a possibility of a thin coating of ice.
While the possibility of significant icing cannot be entirely discounted either very early Sunday or at the end of the storm, it is a low and diminishing probability.
max_weisenfeld said:
Most likely scenario continues to be a possibility of light snow this afternoon, although things might develop a couple of hours later than previously thought, with the main event coming between 8 and 9 this evening.
ridski said:
WxNut, does that mean we’ll be getting lots of snow, or little tonight?
Asking for a friend, who happens to be putting on a show in town tonight.
You can skip the encore.
I wish the weather weren’t like this, and a concern to all involved, but I can’t tell you how much I’m looking forward to attending.
The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled and replaced by a winter weather advisory.
There is no significant change from my last post (about 2:15 this afternoon) in terms of forecast and not unexpected. The snow/sleet depth will only be 2 - 4", reached in the middle of a weekend night and almost immediately washed away, and this does not meet warning criteria.
There remains the chance of icing overnight and again Sunday afternoon, but the risks are fading as the storm comes in on the warmer side of the forecast range.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 306 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 NJZ004-105-200500- /O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190120T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.190119T2100Z-190120T1100Z/ Eastern Passaic-Western Essex- 306 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Eastern Passaic and Western Essex Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.
Can I just point out that the only thing that has changed in the forecast over the last 48 hours is the temperature profile, and it only changed by about 5 degrees?
max_weisenfeld said:
Can I just point out that the only thing that has changed in the forecast over the last 48 hours is the temperature profile, and it only changed by about 5 degrees?
So noted, but admit it - it’s funny 
(May I also add that if anybody, it WAY more portrays the network weather readers who seem to want to spin everything into the storm of the century...)
Max, I actually read what you post, and I love how you translate conflicting models. I saw your point yesterday that this probably wouldn't be a world beater. But I got gas for the snowblower anyway.
max_weisenfeld said:
Can I just point out that the only thing that has changed in the forecast over the last 48 hours is the temperature profile, and it only changed by about 5 degrees?
your posts have been really good at conveying the uncertainty around the predictions. Anyone paying attention would have done some prep, but wouldn't have freaked out
Max is Mighty!!!!
Honest, straightforward. No Smoke!
Thank You,
Ron Carter
conandrob240 said:
so we’re basically just getting rain?
Effectively. Any snow will be gone by morning if it sticks at all.
FilmCarp said:
Max, I actually read what you post, and I love how you translate conflicting models. I saw your point yesterday that this probably wouldn't be a world beater. But I got gas for the snowblower anyway.
As did I!
well, I’m glad to not see snow but stinks that we re-arranged our whole weekend around some rain.
Roads are slick out there now. It just changed over to sleet or freezing rain.
Never have so many welcomed a fizzle! Geraldo?????????
All the same, thanks Max for keeping us straight!
Best Regards,
Ron Carter
Precipitation so far 1.2" mostly rain.
Rain tapers off slowly this morning. Temps drop sharply this afternoon any remaining snow ice or slush will freeze solid for two days.
Wind picks up this afternoon steady 20mph with 30 mph gusts. Temps tonight in the teens or even single digits with wind chill tomorrow morning of -10. Deep cold and gusty winds throughout the day tomorrow.
Just cleared away the remaining slush on the driveway and sidewalk. If it's still there by 4pm I think people will be stuck with it as a hazard for a while.
Ick. That rapid temperature drop is insane. My ice paranoia is starting, and it sounds like a recipe for icy roads with the deep freeze starting around 2pm today.
And to mentally prepare myself : With all this water, then temps getting that cold that quick, a snow day due to ice on Tuesday doesn't seem out of the question.
I may go out around 1pm when the rain ends to just sweep any water off the walkway, driveway, even the street next to our driveway apron, and put down some salt/sand.
If your car is outside, make sure you open and close your car doors before the freeze sets in or else your car is likely to be frozen shut tomorrow.
dr_matt said:
Just cleared away the remaining slush on the driveway and sidewalk. If it's still there by 4pm I think people will be stuck with it as a hazard for a while.
Slush?
Westfield- nothing but rain. And it’s been sunny and drying everything for about 2 hours.
Where I work in Warren Co they put chains on all the vehicles in anticipation of snow. Driving all day in the rain with snow chains on sucked big time. And I told them I’d never driven with chains before, so they told me to be careful about going over 40 mph. They forgot to warn me about braking. Fun day
My wife and I just went out for a one-mile walk. It's brutal out there, cold and windy. We are near the Hudson River, a windy neighborhood.
Tom_Reingold said:
My wife and I just went out for a one-mile walk. It's brutal out there, cold and windy. We are near the Hudson River, a windy neighborhood.
I'm sitting on the couch watching football. It is warm.
it’s quite a bit more than “breezy”. Really windy here, getting very cold. No thanks. I’ll stay right here inside and watch the Patriots lose.
WxNut, does that mean we’ll be getting lots of snow, or little tonight?
Asking for a friend, who happens to be putting on a show in town tonight.